President Donald Trump is in the habit of saying he is winning. Whether he’s discussing the economy or his real estate career, he often declares success even when the underlying facts are more nuanced.
But his frequent claims to be “winning” the ongoing war with Iran are creating significant risks — not only to public perception of his management of the conflict but also to his broader diplomatic strategy.
“Let me say, we’ve won,” Trump declared Wednesday at a Kentucky rally, just 12 days after airstrikes began. “You never like to say too early you won: We won. We won the bet — in the first hour, it was over.”
For critics, the tendency to brag about a supposed victory this early in the conflict is reminiscent of former President George W. Bush’s ill-advised decision to pose under a “Mission Accomplished” banner on an aircraft carrier in May 2003, six weeks after bombing began. The Iraq War did not officially end until eight years later.
Even longtime allies have warned that the administration will need to decide what winning in Iran would actually look like.
“You got to figure out how you have victory, because victory is what matters here,” former Trump chief strategist Steve Bannon said on his podcast Wednesday. “It would be catastrophic for us to not have victory in this.”
Since the conflict began on Feb. 28, the U.S. and Israel have successfully conducted thousands of strikes, damaging Iranian infrastructure and leading to the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior security officials.
But Iran has countered with missile and drone attacks on U.S. military bases and other infrastructure in the region and dramatically slowed crucial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, raising the price of oil and gas with escalating effects on the world economy.
Support for the war remains tenuous at best, with more than half of registered voters opposing it in a recent Quinnipiac University poll.
Olivia Troye, a veteran national security official who served during Trump’s first term but campaigned against him in the 2024 election, said it’s not surprising that Trump and his top aides are regularly claiming that the U.S. is winning.
“They operate by repetitiveness,” she said. “At some point, he probably expects to wash his hands and claim it as a win, and move on.”
For Troye, however, framing the conflict in these terms undermines the seriousness of the effort. “This isn’t a game show,” said Troye, who worked at the Pentagon ahead of the Iraq War in 2003 under Bush. “War with Iran isn’t a political-messaging exercise.”
“Lives are being lost right now,” she added.
Administration officials point to the efficacy of America’s military campaign.
Administration officials point to the efficacy of America’s military campaign as evidence for their assertions. The Pentagon on Tuesday repeated estimates that Iran’s ballistic missile attacks have decreased by 90% since the onset of the war, while one-way attack drone strikes have declined by 83%.
“We’re winning decisively with brutal efficiency, total air dominance and an unbreakable will to accomplish the president’s objectives,” Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said at a recent press briefing.
But Trump’s objectives are not entirely clear. At different times, the president has said that the conflict will degrade the Iranian military, prevent the regime from building nuclear weapons and give the Iranian people an opportunity to overthrow the government.
Trump has also outlined a goal that will be extremely difficult: creating a partnership with Iran’s leader similar to his relationship with new Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez, who has agreed to an arrangement allowing the U.S. to profit from oil sales there.
At least one Trump ally in Congress has echoed this goal.
“When this regime goes down, we are going to have a new Mideast. We’re going to make a ton of money,” Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said recently on Fox News. “This is a good investment.”
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Akayla Gardner is a White House correspondent for MS NOW.