With one week remaining before the Iowa caucuses, statewide polling showed former Ambassador Nikki Haley inching past Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis for second place. But while polling fared quite well overall, that’s not quite what happened. NBC News reported overnight:
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, meanwhile, prevailed over former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley in what became the more closely watched battle for second place. … Neither DeSantis nor Haley made moves to drop out, and both argued that they are leaving Iowa in a position of strength. But their showings will not immediately reshape the dynamics of the race.
Speaking to her supporters as the results came in, Haley boasted that the fight for the Republicans’ presidential nomination should now be seen as a “two-person race” between her and Donald Trump.
I realize that campaigns often write these speeches well in advance of voters registering their preferences, but the South Carolinian’s rhetoric was quite odd. If she’d finished second in Iowa, Haley would’ve credibly been able to call the race a two-person contest. But she came in third.
In other words, the former ambassador effectively said, “This is now a two-person race if you generously overlook the other candidate who just received more votes than me.”
Making matters worse, this was almost certainly the best possible outcome for the GOP frontrunner. A New York Times analysis explained:
Better still for Mr. Trump, neither Mr. DeSantis nor Ms. Haley posted a strong second-place showing that might have bestowed clear momentum for future races. If anything, Mr. DeSantis’s second-place finish might dampen Ms. Haley’s momentum heading into New Hampshire.
It’s not exactly a secret that most political observers have long predicted that Trump will crush his intraparty rivals, but headed into this week, creative campaign analysts quietly kicked around an implausible scenario. Perhaps, they said, Haley could force DeSantis out with a strong second-place showing in Iowa, which could help add to her existing momentum in New Hampshire.
At that point, the narrative went, there would be a true two-person contest as the campaign headed into her home state. Haley would likely see a fundraising boost; she’d probably pick up some new congressional endorsements; and it would be abundantly clear to every Trump skeptic in the Republican Party that she was their only choice.
Was this scenario likely to hand Haley the nomination? No. Could campaign analysts present it with a straight face? Yes.
Except, all of this was predicated on Haley finishing second in Iowa, which did not happen. To the extent that there was an apparent path, it no longer appears open.
