Tensions are elevated as protests continue in Israel and Trump is scrambling for cash. This week, former Senator Claire McCaskill and former White House Communications Director Jennifer Palmieri offer Team Biden the strategy of walking and chewing gum at the same time. Then, Daria Dawson, Executive Director of America Votes, joins to highlight how the organization is working to mobilize voters this fall. Lastly, Claire and Jen break down the ripple effects both Florida Supreme Court decisions will have on abortion access, now and in the longer term. The stakes are incredibly high for reproductive rights.
Content warning: In this episode, there is discussion about the rape and incest exceptions in the Florida six-week abortion ban that might be triggering for some listeners, so please listen with care.
For further reading:
Here is a map showing where reproductive rights stand, state by state.
And here is the Vanity Fair article Jen mentioned: Inside the Terrifyingly Competent Trump 2024 Campaign.
Note: This is a rough transcript — please excuse any typos.
Jen Palmieri: Hello, welcome to “How to Win 2024.” It’s Thursday, April 4th. I’m Jennifer Palmieri, and I’m here with my co-host, Claire McCaskill.
Hi, Claire.
Claire McCaskill: Hey, I know that you’re in California and it’s cloudy and it’s cloudy here in Missouri. But with every cloud, there is a silver lining and the silver lining —
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: — showed up last night in Nebraska.
Jen Palmieri: It did.
Claire McCaskill: When you had Republicans voting almost unanimously to not give an electoral vote to Trump and change their entire system of designating electoral votes. On the last few days, as you know, Jen, it’s become quite the buzz around folks who dwell on this election that one electoral vote could send the election to the House of Representatives, if they change the way they allocate them. In Nebraska, they do it by congressional district.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: And there’s one district that is reliably a Democratic district and always delivers one electoral vote to the Democratic nominee. So, that’s the silver lining in the cloudy day today.
Jen Palmieri: So if you have heard a little bit about this, the fear was the most likely, easiest path for Biden is he wins like the normal blue states. Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, that gives him 269. And this one electoral vote from Nebraska gives him one, that gets him to 270.
And so they stopped it in Nebraska last night. I think they go out of session soon. So, there’s not much of a window left for Nebraska Republicans, Trump Republicans, because some Republicans oppose this, to do this.
Vanity Fair, I know, has a story out today by Gabe Sherman about how ruthlessly efficient the Trump campaign under Susie Wiles. And since Trump is so busy with all his legal troubles that she and her team can really focus on things like this and messaging, like the ruthlessly efficient messaging around immigration, which we’re going to talk about. And so it’s something we’re going to keep our eye on.
And there could be more hijinks like this, but it just shows you that they are thinking very strategically across the board about how they get to 270. So on the trail this week, Trump has been focused on immigration in the typical nasty way, while Biden is highlighting health care. He had an event yesterday with Senator Sanders at the White House about more ways to save money on prescription drugs.
Claire and I want to dig into the most effective strategy for Biden to consider, which is walking and chewing gum at the same time. And we’ll take a look at Trump’s ever growing cash crunch, as well as the latest from the Israeli protests against Netanyahu.
Claire McCaskill: Jen and I are also going to talk to Daria Dawson. She’s the executive director of America Votes. It’s a progressive coordination hub for getting out the vote. So, they are in touch with a lot of different organizations that work on maximizing voter turnout for people who share their values, which are not the values of Donald Trump.
They work with hundreds of these groups. And so we’re going to dig in with her about, are we really worried about young people and people of color voting for Donald Trump or staying home and what they’re doing about it?
Jen Palmieri: And after this week’s state Supreme Court decision in Florida, we want to take a moment to look at the long shadow. That decision could throw on reproductive rights and the campaign. But first, let’s get to this week’s strategy session. So if I were in the room, the Biden campaign headquarters, Biden team had decided this week was going to be about health care, great.
The fact that Trump wants to repeal still the Affordable Care Act is one of his biggest vulnerabilities with voters because it is shockingly clear to both Claire and me after working on this when it passed, it has a 61 percent approval rating. It has even 37 percent of Republicans support this. It is very unpopular to try to repeal it. So, it is a strong argument and Biden is making that argument this week. That is their focus.
Meanwhile, Trump is focused on immigration. Like I said before, they are ruthlessly efficient about this. They’re really leaning into the notion of a bloodbath. Remember bloodbath from a few weeks ago at the rally Trump did in Dayton, where he said it’s going to be a bloodbath if Biden was elected. They now have bloodbath.com because they’re gross and they just like lean into all the gross stuff. And they’re saying that it’s going to be a bloodbath because of immigration and the border if Biden is elected.
This event in Grand Rapids, very effective messaging. He was lined up with a bunch of police officers, law enforcement behind him, very well coordinated. Unfortunately, there was a young woman who was killed in Grand Rapids by someone who had been deported and then illegally came back into the United States. You know, this is his core message and he is driving it.
I think the Biden campaign should have been out with an ad this week talking about how Trump killed the border security bill. You’re like, it’s clear it’s so hard for the Biden team to get traction on actual issues. When Trump picks a fight on immigration, I feel like they need to be right there with paid media up talking about how he killed the border bill, and this is all an act. And all of this could be addressed or at least much of it could be addressed if Trump would get out of the way and allow for there to be solutions.
Apparently, the Biden campaign did put ads up in Grand Rapids and in Green Bay where he was, billboards anyway. But you could talk about health care, that’s fine. There’s room in the ecosystem for everything, but could have been more aggressive in pushing back on immigration. Because they have to take any opportunity they can to get this message to break through the fact that Trump is the one that’s stopping a border security fix. What do you think?
Claire McCaskill: Yeah, I think it is really a mistake to not lean in to both immigration and crime. Crime is lower.
Jen Palmieri: The crime, yes.
Claire McCaskill: Violent crime in major urban areas is lower than it was when Trump left office. And immigration was not fixed under Donald Trump. He did not build a wall. Mexico did not pay for it. And I think the Biden campaign needs to start asking, okay, give us your bill.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah, right.
Claire McCaskill: You know, Representative Johnson, where’s your legislation? Now, either you have legislation to fix this problem or you don’t want to fix the problem. But if you want to fix the problem, and this needs to come from the President himself. You know, he can say —
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: — I’ve made many pieces of legislation come into law. I know how to get a piece of legislation made into law. Give us your bill and let us fix this problem. And if he just says, give us your bill over and over again and they refuse to do so, it’s a really effective way of highlighting that they just want the political issue. And by the way, I thought it was great in Michigan. He got in a little bit of trouble there because —
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: — the family of the woman who was killed came out and said, he’s lying. He didn’t contact us.
Jen Palmieri: Right, yeah.
Claire McCaskill: And I think the backstory of this particular defendant, who should go to prison forever if he murdered this woman, but he was brought to this country as a very small child.
Jen Palmieri: Right.
Claire McCaskill: And then he got in trouble and they discovered that he would have probably been covered under Dreamer, to tell you the truth. But when he got in trouble, that’s when they deported him.
Jen Palmieri: Right.
Claire McCaskill: And so this isn’t somebody who came across the border for the first time under —
Jen Palmieri: Under elect-Biden. This is not a Biden (inaudible).
Claire McCaskill: Right. So, we need to talk a little bit about money. If I were in the room —
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: — I would tell them to quit talking about how much more money they’ve raised than Donald Trump. This is not a good strategy.
Jen Palmieri: Because he’s going to raise more?
Claire McCaskill: Yeah.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: Why would you tell every Trump supporter out there, well, gosh, I better send Trump some money because he’s really behind on money. What you do, if you’re ahead on money, you put your numbers out, you let the press do what it’s going to do. But touting that you have more money than the other guy is a really good way to raise money for the other guy. I don’t get it.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah, this is a good point, yeah.
Claire McCaskill: I don’t get why they’re doing that. And by the way, Trump just put out their numbers for last month. And guess what?
Jen Palmieri: He raised more money.
Claire McCaskill: They had a big jump up. They raised $65 million in one month. A huge —
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: — jump up. And I think that’s because the Biden campaign is busy telling everybody, ha, ha, ha, we got more money.
Jen Palmieri: It’s true. That really is going to piss everybody off.
Claire McCaskill: I think they should quit talking about how they have more money. They need to keep working really hard at raising money. I think they will outraise him. By the way, the fact that he’s out of money, they can talk about, that he’s broke. I love it that the President is doing things —
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: — where he’s saying —
Jen Palmieri: Mocking Trump.
Claire McCaskill: — you know and by the way, he’s even talking about him being fat, go team. And they’re doing the fact that he’s broke, that whole bullshit about Truth Social is totally made up money. It’s not real money.
Jen Palmieri: Oh my God, yes.
Claire McCaskill: He can’t use it —
Jen Palmieri: He’s totally made up money.
Claire McCaskill: — for anything. He can’t pull it out. He can’t borrow against it. So, I say keep talking about how Trump is broke.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: But quit talking about the campaign being broke.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah. And then the other thing that we learned this week that’s helpful to point out, for the Biden campaign to point out is that Trump is using the money for his legal fees. And “The Times” did a good —
Claire McCaskill: Yeah.
Jen Palmieri: — breakdown of this, this week. So, they calculated that $100 million of the money that he’s been taking in, you know, this is via the super PAC, $100 million on lawyers and costs related to investigation, indictments and pending trials which means, this is amazing, he averaged over $90,000 a day in legal related costs for three-plus years. And none of it paid for with his own money.
And if he continues to spend at this rate, he will be out of money by the summer.
Claire McCaskill: Yeah and he’s resorting to selling Bibles. Let the senator from Georgia, the great Reverend and Senator Raphael Warnock, tell us what we need to hear about Trump selling Bibles.
(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)
Raphael Warnock: The Bible does not need Donald Trump’s endorsement. And Jesus, in the very last week of his life, chased the money changers out of the temple. Those who would take sacred things and use them as cheap relics to be sold in the marketplace. The sad thing is that none of us are surprised by this. This is what we expect from the former president.
(END AUDIO CLIP)
Claire McCaskill: Okay, so —
Jen Palmieri: So good, he’s so good.
Claire McCaskill: He’s the best and he’s so right.
Jen Palmieri: I mean you can tell that —
Claire McCaskill: — the last week of Jesus’ life.
Jen Palmieri: It’s so good, yeah.
Claire McCaskill: By the way, that’s another thing, if I were in the room.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: I would tell Biden to lean into his religion more.
Jen Palmieri: Lean into being so Catholic.
Claire McCaskill: Yeah.
Jen Palmieri: I know it’s such an important part of that family.
Claire McCaskill: It’s a really important part of his life and it’s not —
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: — in Trump’s. It’s not authentic. It’s phony. You smell it. But speaking of religious issues, we have a —
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: — conflict in the Middle East that is getting much worse. And there are tens upon thousands of people hitting the streets in Israel. I think Netanyahu’s support is down to about 20 percent of the country. I think Biden is missing an opportunity to go hard against Netanyahu. Netanyahu is trying to use that to his political advantage anyway. I don’t know what he gains by not calling for the election.
Jen Palmieri: I don’t know.
Claire McCaskill: Gantz has done it now —
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: — the leading candidate to replace Netanyahu. Schumer has done it. And by the way, can I just make a point here about the deadly and tragic attack on the seven World Central Kitchen aid workers in Gaza this week. If Israel has the ability to target the leaders of the Iran militia in Syria in an embassy in Damascus and kill them, take them out, three really high ranking military leaders of Iran, with great specificity, they found these three guys and took them out. How in the world can the same military pull off that and not notice the clearly labeled and previously informed military about where they were going and kill these people?
Jen Palmieri: I know.
Claire McCaskill: It just it just shows you the people that are prosecuting the war in Gaza get different orders than the people who are doing surgical strikes against the leaders of Iran. And they shouldn’t have different orders. They should have the same orders, protect aid workers and innocent civilians.
Jen Palmieri: And you know, we’ve been watching the events of this going on since October. You and I have been talking about it for months now, too. The administration continues to sort of background reporters about how upset the President is and he’s so frustrated and he’s furious with Netanyahu and he’s having tough private conversations with Netanyahu. And I thought, okay, that’s smart to lay the groundwork for the eventual time where Biden comes out and says all of this publicly.
And that still has not happened. And I just, like, I don’t get, you know, a lot of times there’s stuff happening behind the scenes that makes these things more complicated. But I’m having a hard time now imagining what that is that is preventing the president himself from coming out and say this, because lots of reasons including the electoral ones, he needs to do that.
We’re going to take a quick break. But when we’re back, Daria Dawson, Executive Director of America Votes, joins us to talk about how to energize voters, get them out to vote. We’ll be back in a moment.
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Claire McCaskill: Welcome back. As with any election year, there are two really important pieces. We spend a lot of time talking about persuasion, but turnout is the other important piece. You got to convince people to vote for you, but you got to make sure your folks show up. And this year, that threat, that challenge feels almost existential.
Maya Angelou famously said, when someone shows you who they are, believe them the first time. I kind of feel like that sums up Donald Trump. And we know what he represents, but we’ve got to make sure that we do not gloss over the fact that we’ve got a real challenge on voter turnout. Trump alone maybe should be the motivator for folks.
Jen Palmieri: But not everyone thinks about this election in those terms. For some, it’s the economy and inflated grocery prices. For others, it’s climate, immigration, reproductive rights. They want to see that progress has been made, that Biden has made some progress or not, just voting against Trump. So, how do Democrats reach and energize all these different voting coalitions?
Claire McCaskill: Daria Dawson is the Executive Director of America Votes. And she and her organization have been on the front lines of reaching first-time voters and those less frequent voters that don’t make it to the ballot box. Her organization does a herculean job of coordinating with hundreds of national and local groups to try to educate and mobilize voters directly and locally. And she joins us now.
Daria, thank you so much for being with us.
Daria Dawson: You know, thank you so much for having me. I’m really excited to have this conversation with you all.
Jen Palmieri: So Daria, I worked some with America Votes. I’m familiar with the AV tables, as we call them. And let me just try to explain how this works. This is a really important thing. You know, people hear about there’s like different environmental groups, choice groups working on the ground to register voters, turn them out to vote. And America Votes plays a coordinating role, has a table, right?
Sometimes physical, sometimes virtual, where these groups all come together and you play a coordinating role to see who’s reaching out to what voters, what messages are going out, where there’s gaps and what kind of other work needs to be done. Is that right? And then what are the strategies that are working best? You know, there’s like in-person canvassing, direct mail, phones, you know, what’s working to achieve the strong voter participation?
Daria Dawson: Jennifer, you summed that up so well. I’m not even sure that I need to say anything more about America Votes. So yes, America Votes is a coordination entity. We are the coordination hub of the progressive movement. And as you mentioned, all of the independent groups that have a vested interest in winning elections, particularly when it comes to making progress on the progressive side, moving things forward, are welcome at the table.
So we have tables, as you said, real tables, coordinating table. People come together in the states and nationally, we also have a table. So, the national table, as you can imagine, are those groups that you mentioned, choice, environment, labor, constituency groups like the NAACP and Latino Victory Fund, Somos Votantes, Asian American Power Network.
And those groups also joined like work in multiple states, right. So the Planned Parenthoods, the Emily’s List, those groups that you’re familiar with have been our national table. But then in states also, those same groups that you may not have heard of, like RISE and APIAVote and Black Voters Matter, you know, groups that are like have the infrastructure being based in the states are also welcome at the table.
So, we have about 400 partners across the states. We have about 13 core states in which America Votes staff is housed in those states year round. It’s that permanent infrastructure. And then we have about seven or so states that have tables but are partnered with us when it comes to accessing the voter file and the data, because really that’s how we’re able to coordinate is like sharing the data and being able to track.
So America Votes, we are the ones who set the plan of who are the voters we need to engage, how frequently do we need to engage them. And then, assess with our partners at the table who’s in the best position, who’s that trusted messenger that those constituents would understand, recognize, and be able to connect with. So as you could imagine, when we think about what is needed to like mobilize and turn out, who are the voters that we need to mobilize and turn out, people of color, young people, 18 to 34, women.
And we’re seeing pretty much since, I mean very frequently, particularly since the 2016 election, how the diversity of the electorate has shifted.
This electorate is a lot more diverse. I think those voters being engaged, you know, might have been a catalyst during the 2016 election. But when we think about the blue surge voters, as we call them, those voters who did not vote in 2016, but have voted since 2018, voted in 2022, maybe all of the above, maybe one of the above.
We’re talking about a lot of voters, where the electorate of those voters are about 63 percent people of color, more than half women, about 60 percent being 18 to 34. So, the coalition really thinks through about how frequently, how often, how many, and who’s in the best position to do that. Now, to your question about the tactics, I mean, yes, there are a lot of tools and technology.
But to me, I’m from old school field, nothing is better than the actual door knock and an actual having a conversation with a person, particularly when it comes to, you think about in the 2022 election, it was over $900 million worth of paid media. So, how do you break through that and have actual conversations with people? So we look at the direct voter contact tactics first and foremost. So, it is canvassing, that is phone banking, that is sending text messages.
Claire McCaskill: They’re all the same thing. It’s just a different way, they’re just tools to do it.
Jen Palmieri: Right.
Daria Dawson: I guess —
Claire McCaskill: Talking to people.
Daria Dawson: So, we also think through of like, what are the tools that need to be used, like those things that I mentioned. And then again —
Claire McCaskill: Yeah.
Daria Dawson: — the frequency of it.
Claire McCaskill: So, I’ve got lots of questions. The first one is I want to congratulate you because I have been to tables like that. I have hung out at tables like that and you make it sound like, oh, this is all just sweetness and light and peaches and cream and everybody is at the table and everybody agrees. I think it’s important to point out that what you’re doing is really hard.
Every one of those organizations has a point of view. Every one of those organizations has strong personalities. They come with different sets of resources and what you’re doing is the Lord’s work. I’m just telling you.
Daria Dawson: I appreciate it.
Claire McCaskill: I just think it’s really important to point that out right at the beginning because getting everyone to agree on a strategy is harder than herding cats.
Daria Dawson: Absolutely.
Claire McCaskill: And so talk about that challenge and how you get everyone on the same page. And is the threat of Trump enough to make all that bullshit kind of drift away and get everybody focused on the most important things?
Daria Dawson: You know what? Claire, I could appreciate that question because let’s think about what a coalition actually is. A coalition is a group of people or organizations that come together for a particular mission, right? And I actually just delved into that a little bit during our conference last week of reminding people of what it means to be a member of a coalition. And yes, we all have different missions, but how can America Votes help you with one piece of the work to your overall mission?
And the one thing that everyone can agree on is that there have to be good elected officials in order to move policies forward, to have progressive policies and let America Votes be that tool to help you set what your plans are, your political plans, your independent expenditure plans. So, that you and your organization can use other resources and time to do the other pieces of the work, like accountability, like advocacy.
But come to the table to be like, okay, we know when we come to this meeting is going to be about what do we need to do to win? What do we need to do to expand our universes? What do we need to do to engage with voters? And I would say like our plans are a blueprint, right? We take feedback. We want to make sure that everyone is on the same page. And that in itself is a challenge. But I think everyone is very clear-eyed about the mission and winning elections and using America Votes as that resource to do that work and focus on it.
Claire McCaskill: Okay, so what part of the electorate right now, today are you most worried about? What is keeping you up at night in terms of being successful at energizing voters who typically don’t make this their top priority?
Daria Dawson: You know, I would say we are 200 days plus away from the election. And I’m very optimistic about the work that we’re going to do over in that amount of time and the plans that we have to engage right now. You know, it’s April. We know who the candidates are on both sides. We know that this is a rematch of 2020 and we know how to win because we won in 2020. We know how to defeat the MAGA extremism.
I would say what keeps me up at night is ensuring that this can’t be close. Like, it really has to be a blowout because we’re already seeing what is happening on the election administration side when it comes to actually certifying the elections. We could work our damnedest, if I could go ahead and say that —
Claire McCaskill: Oh yeah.
Daria Dawson: — to get voters mobilized and educate them. But then when you have places that will restrict voter access, ballot access, that is what actually keeps me up at night.
Claire McCaskill: Yeah.
Daria Dawson: We’re already seeing the other side trying to say that it’s a rigged election. We’ve seen this crap before, right? So, how do we use these opportunities to actually educate voters now and in particularly the young people? We have to figure out a way to basically educate them, get them in the process and actually make those connections to the issues that they do care about.
Abortion is going to always be an issue that is going to mobilize people, but we have to make sure that we connect that issue to the candidates. We have to make sure that we call out how MAGA extremism is an impact on abortion. And I would say that is what keeps me up at night, more so the administrative part than the actual turning people out to vote.
Jen Palmieri: So, I was in Michigan last week, Daria, and I went with Secretary Granholm from Energy and Governor Whitmer did three stops with Granholm where she was talking about different investments that the administration has made in Michigan.
And I talked to a local elected official there who said, here’s what’s starting to break through. She said, because, of course, almost everyone in Michigan is a woman, who’s an elected official. She said broadband, infrastructure, insulin capped at $35 and a national abortion ban.
And that some of the accomplishments like CHIPS and Science, things like that starting to break through because you see movement on it, you see actual construction, building and things happening in Michigan. I don’t think, at this point, you pointed out it’s April.
In April, we don’t need voters to all know that whatever issue they care about, that Biden’s done something on it. But we need to know there’s a path to doing that, right. So, you work with a lot of different groups. You work with environmental groups. You work with civil rights groups. You work with labor. I think you come from the labor movement, right?
Daria Dawson: Yes.
Jen Palmieri: Do the groups that you work with say, we have a plan for educating our members on what Biden’s done and it’s working. So, I just want to know, there seems like there’s a path there to get to where we need to be, where people understand Biden got a lot done. Good foundation, he’ll build on it and do more.
Daria Dawson: Yeah, I appreciate that question. I would say yes. And the thing that’s very unique about being on the independent side and working with members of the coalition is that they have a brand that people recognize and trust, more so than someone with a D behind their name or an R behind their name, right?
Jen Palmieri: Right.
Daria Dawson: So, their credibility with the community weighs more. So, I’ll give an example of a group that is literally telling people now about, remember that child tax credit, remember what was in the IRA, like really breaking down those pieces and connecting it to the President. And also, you talked about Michigan, we also have to think about the other down ballot races in 2024 and really 2026, right?
And I think that, yes, the top of the ticket is important. But you know, for people to really see change in their lives, those that are closest to the ground, closest to them have the most impact. And change does not happen overnight with one election.
You know, I’m a historian by trade. The good and the bad has always happened when one particular party was in power for at least three cycles, right? So if you think about to the last time, the Democratic Party was in control for three consecutive cycles, we’re talking about the 60 to 68 time, right? So, I think we have to do a better job.
Jen Palmieri: Right.
Daria Dawson: Our trusted messengers on the independent side, who people trust, more so than they actually trust the candidate and making that connection of the incremental changes. Progress does not happen overnight. Progressivism does not happen overnight. It takes bit by bit, election by election for the entire ticket, the entire ballot.
And particularly, let’s be real, about we tell it’s a federal election, we ought to do a better job. And I say we as the progressive movement, we as also as a Democrat of tying federal elections to the Supreme Court. And that every election is about the Supreme Court, not necessarily just who appoints them, but also who confirms them, right.
So, we can hold with this next 2024 election of like, remember that Supreme Court that overturned Roe? Think about where they are as far as like their ages and what’s going to happen in the next four years? What’s going to happen if we lose the Senate, if Tester and Brown aren’t able to be reelected? It’s all connected.
And I think we just have to do a better job of, you know, when it comes to the economics and those good things that have happened, for money to come into your pocket, connecting that to those actually be in the position to set policies for the betterment of your lives.
Claire McCaskill: Daria, I’m curious on the issue of Gaza. You are closer to some of the progressive organizations that have worked very hard to encourage people to not vote for Biden in primaries. Talk about that. And do you think in that space it is important or is there any effort to remind people that it’s not like Trump is sympathetic to innocent Palestinians, you know?
He did everything and anything Bibi Netanyahu wanted him to do, including some things that set back the process of a two-state solution. Talk a little bit about that issue and whether are we wetting the bed about this more than we should or is this really a danger to Joe Biden’s reelection?
Daria Dawson: I think we all have to be cautiously optimistic. And here’s why, I think the good thing about those voters who are voting non-committed is that they’re actually voting.
Jen Palmieri: Right.
Daria Dawson: And that they want to be a part of the process.
Jen Palmieri: That’s a good point.
Daria Dawson: They want their voices to be heard. It is up to us to listen to them and to educate them for the next 200 and something days and keep them engaged in the process. I think that is the silver lining when it comes to where some of the groups who are talking to these communities and how they’re voting.
I would be more concerned if, you know, turnout was low or people were just like checked out completely. To your point about, you know, the other side is worse, I think, again, cautiously optimistic about the fact that these voters want to be engaged in the process. They want their voices to be heard.
But also using this as an opportunity to educate them on what could happen. But I think also that our elected officials need to listen to what’s being said and what’s being done and just not take any of the voters of the coalition for granted.
Claire McCaskill: That’s a place for an exclamation mark. Having been accused of that many times, I am very sensitive to it and I feel very strongly that anyone who takes any part of our important coalition for granted is making a huge mistake and that is not how to win in 2024. Every voice needs to be respected and we need to demonstrate to the Republican Party that we can have people who disagree but understand that our values connect us.
Daria Dawson: Absolutely. I always say, like, we’re a big coalition, like the Democratic Party, we’re a big tent party. We’re a big coalition and we all have lots of issues and things that we care about. But there are more things that bring us together than what actually divide us. And we have to embrace the things that bring us together.
Claire McCaskill: Daria Dawson, Executive Director of American Votes and one strong woman who is going to be on the front lines, making sure that all of the resources are used effectively and efficiently to make sure that we do win in 2024. We thank you so much for taking the time to be with us today.
Daria Dawson: Thank you. This was a blast. I really appreciate it.
Jen Palmieri: We’re taking a pause here, but next up we’ll focus in on the long tail the Florida abortion decision might have now and in the future. That’s next.
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Jen Palmieri: Welcome back. The decision out of the Florida State Supreme Court has been all over the news this week and for good reason. The court ruled on Monday that the state’s constitution does not protect abortion rights. And so that triggered the six-week abortion ban that passed earlier this year, that Ron DeSantis signed in the middle of the night with smiling photos, even though he doesn’t want to talk about it now. And so this triggered the six-week abortion ban to replace its already 15-week abortion ban starting May 1st. Look at the map.
It is chilling. We’ll link to this map of where these abortion restrictions are in our show notes. It’s pretty devastating. You see a huge red block from Texas to North Carolina that has this abortion ban in effect. It’s like every couple of months some huge thing happens related to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. IVF, now this that really hits home to all of us, just how devastating that decision was.
Claire McCaskill: Yeah and in addition to opening the door to basically outlawing abortion in Florida, they also agreed to put on the ballot, a provision that would protect the rights of women to make these intensely private and personal decisions without the government interfering. That’s going to have a big effect on the campaign this fall. We can argue about whether or not Biden should spend the money he would need to spend in Florida.
Jen Palmieri: Right.
Claire McCaskill: But if he’s got it, it’s going to help that state in many ways. And that will be primarily by getting people out to vote on this because I think the vast majority of Floridians don’t want a six-week ban.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: And secondly, it will help Debbie Mucarsel-Powell —
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: — who is running for the Senate down there against that really lovable guy that you just want to spend time with, Rick Scott, you know.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: God love him. He is not somebody who I think has high positive ratings anyway. And by the way, this gives Biden an opportunity to get Donald Trump to say yes or no.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: Will you vote to protect women’s rights —
Jen Palmieri: He votes in Florida.
Claire McCaskill: — in Florida? Are you in favor of the six-week ban?
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: He’s got to say whether he’s in favor of the six-week ban. And if he says he’s against it, that’s going to hurt him in other places. And I want to point out that the six-week ban that’s being reported shorthand all over the country, that it has an exception for rape and incest.
But if you look at the actual language of the ban that Ron DeSantis signed, it requires that an incest victim have a police report or restraining order at six weeks. Now I, unfortunately, cannot forget the victims of incest I dealt with as a line felony court trial prosecutor and as the elected prosecutor in Kansas City for many years.
And people need to understand what happens with incest. Incest victims are told by their perpetrator that if they tell anyone, something terrible will happen to them or to someone they love. They are sworn to secrecy and they are conditioned on secrecy.
So in most of the incest cases I dealt with, the loved one, whether it was a grandmother or an aunt or a mother or an older sister, they didn’t know about the incest until the young girl started having health complications because of the pregnancy, either visibly pregnant or they figured out that she wasn’t having a period. And none of that happens at six weeks.
Jen Palmieri: Right.
Claire McCaskill: So, there is no exception for incest in this bill.
Jen Palmieri: Right.
Claire McCaskill: No exception for incest. If you’re being raped by your mother’s boyfriend, you’ve got no chance of being able to legally terminate that pregnancy. So, I think it’s important to point that out and I hope the campaign does too.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah, it’s really important to walk through that because I did not appreciate that sort of sequencing that like it makes sense. Of course, it will not reveal itself before six weeks. Just a couple of stats that “Washington Post” did a good thing on this. Last year, 84,000 people, at least, got abortions in Florida, more than almost any other state.
Out-of-state residents, because of course they’re surrounded by states with abortion bans, were a growing percentage of that total. That’s according to a report by the health care administration. And Florida joins 16 other states with bans on all or most abortions. Here’s something chilling. Nearly one in three women ages 15 to 44 live in states where abortion is banned or mostly banned.
Like it is really coming home. And the ballot initiative, which sort of enshrined it in the Constitution that women have a right to abortion. It requires a 60 percent vote. That’s high, particularly in a state like Florida. But polling shows that 62 percent of Floridians support this. So, they’re starting out with a good base.
And remember, shortly after this bill passed, there’s was a mayor’s race in Jacksonville. And for the first time in a very long time, a Democrat, a Democratic woman, won that seat. And abortion was a big factor there. So, I think it can help and, you know, the Biden team put out a memo the day that this court ruling came down and said Florida is winnable.
They didn’t say we’re going to play there. They didn’t say we’re going to spend time there. They just said it’s winnable. And that’s just a shot across the ballot. And it’s a shot across the ballot that the Trump campaign has to take seriously because they know that the Biden campaign does have the money to play in Florida.
If they chose to prioritize it, they can hang back, see how this abortion ballot initiative is doing, see how our friend DMP, I call her that, lots of people do because it’s hard to say her name, the Senate candidate. And if they should put money in because they could actually win that, if they should put money in because they want to drain Trump of resources and make him spend money in a state that he thought he could win handily, all of these options are open to them.
Claire McCaskill: You know, I think in a future episode, we should take a look at the groups that are funding these ballot initiatives around the country too. I think one of the things the Biden campaign is probably thinking about is that there are big donors in this country that are willing to help women regain the freedom they enjoyed the last 50 years.
And I know they have been really helpful in bringing money in Missouri for them to get the signatures to get an issue on the ballot here in Missouri for November. So, how much money will those groups bring to the dance, so to speak?
Jen Palmieri: Right.
Claire McCaskill: How much will they put into Florida? And by the way, that might hurt DMP’s fundraising in some ways, because some of the big donors might choose to give to the abortion initiative as opposed to her. The vast majority of the people who vote for the abortion initiative are probably going to vote for her.
Jen Palmieri: They’re going to vote for her because Rick Scott is for a national abortion ban, I assume. I mean I assume he is.
Claire McCaskill: Exactly. And then you’ve got the same situation with the presidential.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: So, I think it would be a good idea for us to pull back the curtain and do a little “How to Win 2024” with these groups that are actually funding, because there’s a lot of people that are writing big checks to try to help these ballot initiatives succeed. I think it’s really important.
Jen Palmieri: The other thing that I just want to note for people, because you don’t necessarily hear this in other political outlets, it’s just that there’s a really big brain drain happening because of these bans. So, there’s drop off in medical school applicants. “U.S. News” had a story about this. Three out of four future U.S. doctors say state access to abortion is a key factor in choosing whether they’ll apply for the residency training.
People are staying away, doctors are staying away from certain states because they know of the abortion restrictions. And then there’s concern that even if these bans get lifted at some point, there won’t be the doctors that have the skills and experience to do these procedures, right?
I assume this is all part of the plan on the other side. Very methodical plan to undo all of these rights. So, it is having a really significant impact not just, you know, in the immediate timeframe, but there’s also a long tail of this that’s pretty concerning for women’s health.
Claire McCaskill: Yeah, I think for really good medical schools, like we have a really good one at Wash U here in St. Louis, they are competing against really good medical schools that are in states like Massachusetts and California. And if you’re choosing to go practice in a state that will allow you to make healthcare decisions solely on the basis of your patient, that’s got to be more attractive to the smartest doctors out there.
And it is a real danger that we got to look at. By the way, I talked to somebody from Florida who was very plugged in to political situation in Florida. They didn’t think the Supreme Court was going to put this on the ballot.
Jen Palmieri: Oh wow.
Claire McCaskill: So, getting back to my theme of a silver lining —
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: — in a dark cloud.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: There’s another silver lining that it’s going to be on the ballot. And we’ll be obviously now watching Florida very closely.
Jen Palmieri: Yeah, I mean as Julie Rodriguez, the Biden campaign manager, said in her thing, Florida is winnable.
Claire McCaskill: There you go.
Jen Palmieri: Thanks so much for listening. As always, if you have a question for us, you can send it to howtowinquestions@nbcuni.com. You can also leave us a voicemail. That number is 646-974-4194. And we might answer it on the pod. And remember to subscribe to MSNBC’s How to Win newsletter to get weekly insights on this year’s key races sent straight to your inbox. I think it’s really great. Visit the link in our show notes to sign up.
Claire McCaskill: This show is produced by Vicki Vergolina. Our associate producer is Janmaris Perez. Catherine Anderson and Bob Mallory are our audio engineers. Our head of audio production is Bryson Barnes. Aisha Turner is the executive producer for MSNBC Audio. And Rebecca Kutler is the Senior Vice President for Content Strategy at MSNBC.
Jen Palmieri: Search for “How to Win 2024” wherever you get your podcasts and follow the series.