Control of the U.S. Senate might very well come down to the race in Montana, where Sen. Jon Tester is facing a tough challenge from Republican Tim Sheehy. The bad news for the Democratic incumbent is that recent polling leaves little doubt that he’s the underdog, but the good news for Tester is that the GOP has nominated a rival with an unfortunate record.

As regular readers know, Sheehy, for example, has used racist rhetoric when talking about Native Americans — which is indefensible under any circumstances, and which is especially foolish in a state with a sizable Native population. He has also accused women who support abortion rights of having been “indoctrinated.” Sheehy has also been accused of plagiarism, doctoring footage in a campaign commercial, disparaging firefighters, flubbing the basics of the impeachment process, having a controversial lobbying background, and exaggerating his successes in the private sector.

In case that weren’t quite enough, the candidate wrote in his book that he was discharged from the military for medical reasons, but NBC News reported last month that the discharge paperwork indicates that he resigned voluntarily and it does not list any medical condition that forced him out.

But most important is the question of how and when Sheehy was shot. NBC News reported over the weekend:

Montana’s Republican Senate candidate Tim Sheehy struggled in a new interview to give a clear explanation about the circumstances surrounding a 2015 incident in a national park that led to his treatment for a gunshot wound and receipt of a fine. In the interview with radio host and former Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly, which was posted online Thursday, Sheehy left Kelly confused, and she warned him that the voters in Montana were unclear about what happened.

The conservative host told the Senate hopeful that his version of events is “so confusing,” and it was a rare instance in which I found myself in agreement with Kelly.

Let’s circle back to our recent coverage and review how we arrived at this point.

The Republican candidate, a retired Navy SEAL, has told Montana voters that he has a bullet stuck in his right forearm “from Afghanistan.” It’s the sort of claim that signals to the public that Sheehy wants to be seen as tough, while simultaneously reminding people about his military service.

And while it certainly appears that there’s a bullet lodged in Sheehy’s right forearm, there’s reason to be skeptical about how it got there.

The Washington Post reported back in April that Sheehy visited Montana’s Glacier National Park in 2015, at which point he told a National Park Service ranger that he accidentally shot himself when his Colt .45 revolver fell and discharged while he was loading his vehicle in the park. Soon after, the Post’s article added, a ranger cited Sheehy for allegedly discharging his weapon in a national park illegally, relying on the Republican’s version of events, and the relevant reports were filed.

More recently, however, Sheehy told the Post that he lied to the National Park Service ranger and that he was actually shot while serving in Afghanistan.

The ranger who interacted with the future Senate candidate, Kim Peach, isn’t buying it. In fact, Peach told The New York Times that he remembers seeing Sheehy at the hospital in 2015 “with a bandage on his arm,” presumably because he’d just accidentally shot himself.

The article added, “Because it is illegal to discharge a firearm in a national park, Mr. Peach said, he and Mr. Sheehy went out to Mr. Sheehy’s vehicle, where Mr. Peach temporarily confiscated the gun and unloaded it, finding five live rounds and the casing of one that had been fired.”

The Times also spoke with one of Sheehy’s former SEAL colleagues, Dave Madden, who recalled swapping war stories with the Montanan about their experiences, and Sheehy never said anything about having been shot.

“Mr. Madden said he was surprised when Mr. Sheehy began talking more recently about having been shot that spring in Afghanistan, and that he became convinced that Mr. Sheehy had invented the story,” the article added.

The question isn’t whether Sheehy lied. The question is when and to whom he lied.

To be sure, the GOP candidate remains adamant that he was shot in Afghanistan and lied about the park incident to protect his former platoonmates from facing a potential investigation.

As Sheehy has explained it, he believed that if he’d told the truth in 2015, it might’ve been reported to the Navy, prompting questions about whether the wound was the result of friendly fire or from enemy ammunition. But the Post reported that it would’ve been “highly unlikely that a civilian hospital would report a years-old bullet wound to the Navy.”

In theory, the candidate could release the relevant medical records and put the matter to rest. In practice, Sheehy now says there are no such medical records.

No wonder Kelly found all of this “so confusing.”

As for the significance of this, Sheehy doesn’t have much of a record to fall back on, so if he lied about getting shot in Afghanistan, it does dramatic harm to one of the key pillars of his entire candidacy. Watch this space.

This post updates our related earlier coverage.