As this week got underway, Donald Trump decided to publish his latest online rant to his social media platform, spanning over 240 words, featuring idiosyncratic grammar and including eight exclamation points. With three weeks remaining before Inauguration Day, the tirade was notable in large part because it offered a tour of sorts into what’s on the president-elect’s mind.

The Republican claimed he won “in a landslide.” (He didn’t.) He claimed that there was “large scale voter fraud.” (There wasn’t.) He claimed that Democrats “illegally” bought celebrity endorsements. (They didn’t.) He claimed that the Biden administration “weaponized” federal law enforcement. (It didn’t.)

After nearly a dozen sentences of hysterical nonsense, however, the president-elect managed to actually write something relevant. NBC News reported:

President-elect Donald Trump backed House Speaker Mike Johnson in his campaign to hold onto the gavel, writing on his social media platform that the Louisiana Republican has his “Complete & Total Endorsement.” “Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man. He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN,” Trump said on Truth Social Monday.

To a certain degree, the endorsement might’ve seemed redundant. After all, the president-elect effectively endorsed Johnson’s hold on the gavel the week after Election Day, signaling that the GOP would stick with its status quo in the lower chamber.

A month later, however, Trump sang a different tune. After the Louisiana Republican struck a bipartisan agreement to prevent a government shutdown, sparking a divisive intraparty fight, NBC News asked the president-elect whether he still had confidence in Johnson. “We’ll see,” Trump replied.

A few days later, Politico spoke to some members of Trump’s inner circle, who didn’t exactly rally behind the incumbent speaker. One was quoted saying, “No one thinks he’s strong. No one says, ‘Damn, this guy’s a fighter.’” Another added, “I don’t see how Johnson survives.”

With this in mind, it’s obviously significant to see the president-elect revert back to the position he took in mid-November and offer the House GOP leader his “Complete & Total Endorsement” — even if Trump did let Johnson twist in the wind for several days. Indeed, had Trump hedged on the speaker’s future — or more dramatically, called for him to pass the gavel to someone new — Johnson’s fate would’ve been sealed.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean that the inverse is true, and the speaker can now breathe easy. Johnson was no doubt relieved by the president-elect’s weird online missive, knowing that the alternative likely would’ve meant the end of his tenure, but the Louisianan’s troubles linger.

For one thing, he has some steadfast opponents among his Republican members, and given the narrow margins in the House, it won’t take much to cause real trouble once the voting begins later this week.

For another, the idea that GOP members will blindly obey Trump’s directive is belied by recent events. In fact, it’s a well-kept secret that congressional Republicans have repeatedly ignored Trump’s instructions in recent years, including in leadership races.

When he told Senate Republicans to replace Mitch McConnell as the Senate GOP leader, they didn’t. When he told House Republicans last year to elect Rep. Jim Jordan as House speaker, that didn’t happen, either.

In other words, Johnson is in a better position now than he was before Trump’s online tirade, but he’s not entirely out of the woods, at least not yet.

As for what to expect procedurally on Friday, there will be 434 House members — 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats — and if every representative shows up and votes, the next speaker will need 218 votes (217 would represent exactly half, and to get the gavel, someone will need a literal majority).

As things stand, one GOP member, Rep. Thomas Massie, has declared publicly that he will not back Johnson. If the Kentucky Republican sticks to that position, it wouldn’t be fatal to the incumbent speaker because it would leave him with 218 votes from his own GOP conference. If, however, Massie follows through and picks up one additional ally from his own party, Johnson will be short of the support he needs — at least, that is, on the first ballot.

I won’t pretend to know what will happen, though it’s worth keeping in mind that if Johnson hopes to get some Democratic support to prevent an even more extreme Republican alternative from becoming speaker, Democratic leaders have said that this will not happen. Watch this space.