Will cooler heads prevail in U.S.-Israel spat?… Jeb writes pro-Israel op-ed after James Baker’s critical remarks about Netanyahu … Liberals turning their attention from persuading Warren to run (which isn’t happening) to influencing Hillary Clinton bid (which is) … Why that “John Doe” investigation in Wisconsin remains a problem for Scott Walker… Terry McAuliffe + Tony Rodham = Trouble… And Coats’ retirement gives Democrats an opening. How big is that opening? You’ll have to ask Evan Bayh.
FIRST THOUGHTS
*** Will cooler heads prevail in U.S.-Israel spat? Fights between friends are always nastier — and more personal — because you expect more from friends than you do your enemies or strangers. But to prevent that friend from becoming an enemy or stranger, cooler heads ultimately have to prevail, no matter who was at fault. And that’s the situation the United States and Israel find themselves in right now: Someone is going to have to be the bigger person in this spat between friends. President Obama, who is often compared to the emotion-less/cool Mr. Spock, was about as icy as we’ve seen him when talking about Prime Minister Netanyahu at yesterday’s news conference with Afghan President Ghani. Obama said he has a “business-like relationship” with the prime minister, but added, “This can’t be reduced to a matter of somehow let’s all hold hands and sing ‘Kumbaya.’” Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that Israeli Ambassador Ron Dermer, who arranged Netanyahu’s controversial speech to Congress, “has shown no trace of contrition for his role in the clash and little sign that he is rethinking his approach.” And now there are the stories coming out of Israel with even Netanyahu critics saying the U.S. has gone too far.
RELATED: Report: Israel spied on U.S.-Iran nuke talks
*** Neither side is backing down: Bottom line: Neither side is backing down, though Netanyahu did apologize for the apparent anti-Arab remarks he made on Election Day, and he tried to walk back his opposition to a two-state solution. The problem for Israel is that they’re the unequal partner in the alliance — they’re the side getting financial assistance, military help, and diplomatic cover from the United States. The problem for the Obama administration is domestic politics — there’s a Republican Party willing to exploit any disagreement between Obama and Netanyahu for political gain. That SHOULD be a formula for cooler heads to prevail, right?
*** Jeb writes pro-Israel op-ed after James Baker’s critical remarks about Netanyahu: Sticking with the domestic politics of Israel, Jeb Bush has an op-ed in National Review hitting Obama on Iran and his administration’s treatment of Israel. A snippet: “This is no way to treat an ally. Conducting the foreign policy of a great nation requires maturity and a strategic sense of America’s long-term interests. This is no time for schoolyard antics. With Israel, those interests lie in a firm alliance. Israel and America must work together to build a more prosperous and hopeful future for the region. A state for the Palestinian people, side by side with Israel, will be possible only if the Palestinian people are represented by leaders committed to delivering on the promises made at the negotiating table.” But to us, Bush’s op-ed looks like a bit of clean-up on James Baker’s recent remarks ALSO criticizing Netanyahu — but without having to throw Baker (a Bush adviser) under the bus.
*** Liberals turning their attention from persuading Warren to run (which isn’t happening) to influencing Hillary Clinton bid (which is): The folks over at Hotline made a really good observation yesterday: Liberals groups are suddenly turning their attention from Elizabeth Warren (who clearly isn’t running for president) to Hillary Clinton. Case in point is this story: The liberal group Progressive Change Campaign Committee “is starting a campaign Tuesday aimed at pushing Hillary Rodham Clinton to adopt a full-throated liberal agenda in her all-but-certain presidential campaign, signaling that even some on the far left of the Democratic Party are now more focused on shaping Mrs. Clinton’s eventual platform than they are on finding an alternative to her.”
RELATED: Iowa and New Hampshire Dems to Clinton: Be more like Warren
*** Why that “John Doe” investigation in Wisconsin remains a problem for Scott Walker: Because of stories like this piece by Yahoo’s Mike Isikoff. “[Wealthy businessman John Menard Jr.] wrote more than $1.5 million in checks to a pro-Walker political advocacy group [Wisconsin Club for Growth] that pledged to keep its donors secret… In the past two years, Menard’s company has been awarded up to $1.8 million in special tax credits from a state economic development corporation that Walker chairs, according to state records.” How did this all come to light? “The contributions by Menard, made in 2011 and 2012, were uncovered among hundreds of emails and internal documents seized by state prosecutors in the course of a wide-ranging criminal investigation into whether Walker’s campaign committee violated state campaign finance laws — including those requiring public disclosure — by funneling large donations to outside, nondisclosing advocacy groups, such as the Wisconsin Club for Growth.” Yet as Yahoo notes, the “John Doe” probe has stalled, and the Wisconsin Supreme Court will hear arguments next month about whether it should proceed. The good news for Walker: That court is controlled by conservatives.
*** Terry McAuliffe + Tony Rodham = Trouble: Speaking of investigations, what do you get when you combine Virginia Gov. Terry McAuliffe and Hillary Clinton’s brother Tony Rodham? Another newspaper headline like this from the Washington Post: “Report: Va. Governor received special treatment from Homeland Security.” Per an inspector general’s report, “McAuliffe was among several politically powerful individuals from both parties, including Sen. Harry M. Reid … seeking special visas for foreign investors through a program administered by the department. But intervention on behalf of McAuliffe’s GreenTech Automotive company by Alejandro Mayorkas, now the department’s No. 2 official, ‘was unprecedented,’ according to the report. The long-anticipated report found no evidence of law-breaking. But members of the department’s staff perceived Mayorkas’s actions as ‘politically motivated,’ and the report concluded that he had ‘created an appearance of favoritism and special access.’” Tony Rodham’s role here? “McAuliffe’s company had partnered with Gulf Coast Funds Management, a firm that specializes in obtaining EB-5 visas for investors. Gulf Coast was led by Anthony Rodham, brother of then-Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton.” Also, this is the SECOND Tony Rodham story in the past week.
*** Coats’ retirement gives Democrats an opening. How big is that opening? You’ll have to ask Evan Bayh: Yesterday’s announcement that Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN) isn’t running for re-election next year created an opening for Democrats to win the seat in this GOP-leaning state. Back in the last presidential cycle, of course, Democrats won the Senate race in Indiana after Republicans ended up with a nominee, Richard Mourdock, who was too conservative and too problematic. (Mourdock knocked off incumbent Sen. Dick Lugar in the GOP primary.) And the opening might even be bigger if former Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN) decides he wants his old seat back. But despite what happened in 2012, Republicans have an excellent shot at holding on to the seat — thanks to a deep congressional bench that includes Reps. Susan Brooks, Todd Young, Todd Rokita, and Jackie Walorski. (Though Rep. Luke Messer took himself out of consideration.) And don’t miss this this piece by Bloomberg’s Dave Weigel: The Tea Party gets a third crack at winning in Indiana. Bottom line: Like in 2012, who wins the GOP nomination will have a considerable impact on the race.
OBAMA AGENDA: U.S. to keep 9,800 troops in Afghanistan through ‘15
From NBC’s Andrew Rafferty: “President Barack Obama on Tuesday announced the U.S. will not reduce troop levels in Afghanistan by the end of 2015, despite the president’s previous pledge to cut the number by half.”
A federal appeals court will hold a hearing on April 17 to look at the battle over the president’s executive actions on immigration.
The skinny on that White House florist saga, from the Washington Post: Dowling “left because her “fussy style” was not in line with the first lady’s emerging modern and clean aesthetics, several sources said.”
CONGRESS: Doc-fix politics
The New York Times writes that Senate Democrats are objecting what was poised to be a bipartisan long-term plan to fix doctors’ payments from Medicare.
House Republicans are set to pass a budget, reports the Wall Street Journal. “The budget is expected to narrowly clear the House, but leaders have made several course corrections to get there. In one major adjustment, lawmakers were planning to amend the budget through an unusual series of votes on competing amendments Wednesday.”
Roll Call: “Budget maneuvers congressional Republicans are undertaking suggest the statutory discretionary spending caps, which some lawmakers consider a major party accomplishment, may not survive a GOP-controlled Congress.”
OFF TO THE RACES: Yes, Cruz is eligible to be president
The Washington Post writes that some previously in-demand bundlers are “not quite rich enough for 2016.”
BUSH: POLITICO writes that his support in potential firewall South Carolina isn’t as strong as he hoped.
CHRISTIE: Bloomberg looks at how Chris Christie is trying to use his unscripted town halls to revive his presidential aspirations.
CLINTON: The New York Times notes that Hillary Clinton is caught between teachers’ unions and wealthy liberal donors who oppose many of the policies the unions support.
Trusted aide Cheryl Mills won’t play a formal role in her campaign, the New York Times reports.
CRUZ: One of us(!) took a look at what Cruz’s Canadian birthplace does and doesn’t mean.
The Washington Post finds that a climate researcher cited by Ted Cruz says he’s interpreting the data wrong.
KASICH: The Wall Street Journal takes a look at Kasich, who says “I’m not ready to make a decision. This is not cat and mouse. All my options are on the table.”
PAUL: He’s not being shy about trying to rain on Ted Cruz’s parade, writes The Hill.
WALKER: From Yahoo’s Michael Isikoff: “Secret $1.5 million donation from Wisconsin billionaire uncovered in Scott Walker dark-money probe”
And around the country.
INDIANA: Indiana Republican Dan Coats won’t run for reelection.
VIRGINIA: Gov. Terry McAuliffe got special treatment from DHS on behalf of his electric car company, The Washington Post writes.
Additional reporting by Carrie Dann.
Chuck Todd
Chuck Todd is NBC News' chief political analyst and the former moderator of "Meet The Press."
Mark Murray