KENILWORTH, N.J. — If there is a surprise to be had on Election Night, it might just be in New Jersey.
That’s where Rep. Mikie Sherrill, a Democrat who first won election to the House in the anti-Trump wave of 2018, and GOP businessman Jack Ciattarelli are running for governor in one of the most closely watched contests on Tuesday.
Sherrill is favored in this mainly blue state where Gov. Phil Murphy (D) is term-limited and the last time residents preferred a Republican for president was in 1988.
Yet Ciattarelli came within three percentage points of beating outgoing Gov. Phil Murphy (D) in 2021 and recent polls show a tight race. And President Donald Trump lost the state by just six points in 2024 after making gains in all of its 2021 counties. In an off-year election when turnout is unpredictable, anything could happen.
Democrats are expressing optimism that all the early votes cast in New Jersey between Oct. 25 and Nov. 2 are a sign of good things to come.
In an MSNBC interview on Saturday, Sherrill dodged the question of why she thinks the race is so tight in her typically blue state.
“This will be historic,” she said, adding that “so far the early returns look good.”
Sherrill noted that neither major political party has held the governor’s mansion for a third consecutive term since the 1970s, and that New Jersey wants to continue to “innovate” and to “go against the status quo.”
“And so what is at stake here is, are we going to continue to do that, or are we going to go backwards with Donald Trump or Jack Ciattarelli?”
Along with issues such as affordability, Sherrill has gone all in on tying her opponent to the president, labeling him as the “Trump of Trenton.” She campaigned with former President Barack Obama over the weekend in Newark in which the former president urged attendees not only to set an example for the state, but also for the nation.
Ciattarrelli, meanwhile, has been endorsed by Trump but has not personally campaigned with him during a wobbly economy, one month into a debilitating government shutdown. But the Republican standard-bearer pitched in with a pair of Election Eve tele-rallies for the GOP candidates in both New Jersey and Virginia.
And so what is at stake here is, are we going to continue to do that, or are we going to go backwards with Donald Trump or Jack Ciattarelli?
democratic Gubernatorial candidate mikie sherrill
Ciattarrelli also held an event with Fox News host Sean Hannity in Ocean County on Thursday.
“I came up here because this is a huge political earthquake. It will rock the nation,” Hannity exclaimed, according to the New Jersey Monitor. “It will reverberate all across the country. I really believe it, and I’m fascinated by it, and the country’s fascinated by it.”
Polls show a single-digit contest. A Suffolk University poll taken Oct. 26-29 of 500 likely voters showed Sherrill edging Ciattarrelli 46% to 42%, with a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points. A Quinnipiac University survey taken Oct. 23-28 of 1,166 likely voters showed an eight-point race, with Sherrill beating Ciattarelli 51% to 43%. That poll’s margin of error is 3.8 percentage points.
Ciattarelli has avoided directly discussing Trump on the campaign trail, but has leaned into familiar MAGA themes, such as cracking down on immigration and praising Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill that lowered taxes for the wealthy and slashed Medicaid, while injecting record resources into border security.
MSNBC was unsuccessful in attempts to obtain an interview with Ciattarelli in person.
Getting Trump voters to turn out for him on Election Day will be critical to the GOP candidate’s fate.
Trump made gains in the Garden State in 2024, especially in more diverse areas such as Passaic County, home to many Latinos and a place Trump flipped in the last presidential contest. According to the Associated Press, Trump won Passaic — which is more than 70% Hispanic — with 49.8% of the vote, compared to Kamala Harris’ 46.9%.
Like elsewhere in the country, both Sherrill and Ciattarelli are dueling over affordability and each has made it central to their pitches.
As in neighboring New York, the issue is likely to resonate in a state whose property taxes and electricity rates are among the highest in the U.S. Last summer, electricity rates soared 22%.
If she wins, Sherrill says she’s planning to issue a state of emergency on utility costs.
“I want to show the sense of urgency I have,” Sherrill told MSNBC. “I’m not, you know, commissioning a 10-year study. I am on day one declaring a state of emergency because too many people are feeling that they just aren’t going to be able to stay here. They just can’t make ends meet.”
Ciattarelli says he’s planning to roll back green energy initiatives while expanding nuclear and solar power availability.
New Jersey voter Patricia Anfora said Monday she considers Sherrill to be a “woman of honor and integrity,” and expressed her distaste for Trump, whose behavior she called “disgusting.”
“No way. I know New Jerseyans,” Anfora said when asked by MSNBC reporter Mychael Schnell if there has been a “red shift” in New Jersey. “I’ve lived here my entire life — 74 years — and every single person that I know and have met throughout the whole state, we are good people here” who wouldn’t “hurt anyone” like “that man who is in the office of the president.”
— Allison Detzel contributed to this report.
Ciattarrelli, meanwhile, has been endorsed by Trump but has not personally campaigned with him during a wobbly economy, one month into a debilitating government shutdown. But the Republican standard-bearer pitched in with a pair of Election Eve tele-rallies for the GOP candidates in both New Jersey and Virginia.
Laura Haefeli is a reporter for MS NOW.