BRUSSELS AND LONDON — European officials and analysts are voicing increased alarm about the prospects for peace in Ukraine, citing doubts about both Russian President Vladimir Putin’s willingness to agree to a compromise and Trump administration envoy Steve Witkoff’s ability to broker it.
The European officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, citing fear of retaliation from the Trump administration, said they had not seen any indication that Putin is softening his demands, whether Ukraine ceding territory to Russia or limiting the size of Ukraine’s army.
They said fears of a wider war with Russia — and potential American abandonment — are growing. In a speech in Germany on Thursday, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned that “we are Russia’s next target” and said that Moscow could attack a NATO country within the next five years.
“We are already in harm’s way,” Rutte said, referring to Russian-backed sabotage attacks that have intensified in recent months. “We must be prepared for the scale of war our grandparents or great-grandparents endured.”
The campaign stretches from Britain to Poland and includes arson and cyber attacks, election interference, disinformation campaigns, death threats, damage to railway infrastructure and the deployment of drones that have intermittently disrupted air traffic at major airports. In many cases, Moscow pays proxies to carry them out.
Amid the attacks, many Europeans have been stunned by the Trump administration’s approach to talks to end the war in Ukraine.
A rift between the two sides appeared to grow on Thursday, with President Donald Trump saying he had exchanged “pretty strong words” with European leaders about the talks.
On Friday, the European Union took a step toward transferring roughly $150 billion in frozen Russian sovereign assets to Ukraine, an amount that would cover its military and civilian budget needs in 2026 and 2027 and, they say, pressure Putin to negotiate.
Analysts warned, though, that Trump could try to quickly strike a peace deal with Russia without including the Europeans. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
While privately expressing confidence in Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law who recently joined the talks, European officials expressed bafflement at Witkoff’s continued role in the talks, citing his failure to bring his own translator to meetings or take detailed notes, and his lack of diplomatic experience.
They said that Trump administration officials continue to repeat false Russian talking points regarding Ukraine in private. They fear that Witkoff and other Trump administration officials view Putin’s Russia as a potential business opportunity and are naive about the threat it represents to democracy.
The release this week of the Trump administration’s new National Security Strategy also deeply shook European officials.
For decades, the U.S.-Europe relationship has been “a bedrock of American national security,” said Nigel Gould-Davies, a former British diplomat who served in Russia and Belarus.
The Trump White House’s new strategy suggests that era is over. The strategy includes a lengthy critique of Europe, which it says regulates business too heavily, allows too much migration and risks “civilizational erasure.” At the same time, it contains scant criticism of Russia or China.
The document judges Europe “harsher than more authoritarian parts of the world,” Gould-Davies said.
For decades, Moscow’s goal has been clear, said Oana Lungescu, who served as the principal spokesperson for NATO from 2010 to 2023: “Break up NATO and the EU, and drive the U.S. out of Europe.”
Putin is already “somewhat successful” in achieving that goal, said Lungescu. A hastily concluded peace agreement in Ukraine could help Putin fully achieve it, she said.
“If a peace deal is rushed, it will unravel, giving Russia the time and resources to reconstitute its forces and launch another even more devastating war in Europe — this time against NATO.”
What Trump does next is the focus of intense interest in Europe. Lungescu said Trump has appeared to be genuinely frustrated with Putin recently, but also determined to broker a peace agreement as soon as possible.
“I think he doesn’t trust Putin as much as he did,” said Lungescu. “But he still wants a quick deal.”
David Rohde
David Rohde is the senior national security reporter for MS NOW. Previously he was the senior executive editor for national security and law for NBC News.
Ian Sherwood is the director of international newsgathering for MS NOW, a former executive editor for NBC News and a former deputy Washington bureau chief for the BBC.