Kari Lake’s campaign launch is great news for Arizona Democrats

Far-right Republican Kari Lake officially announced her U.S. Senate campaign in Arizona on Tuesday, nearly one year after losing her gubernatorial bid in the state.

I’m not saying Arizona Democrats should be jumping for joy, but there’s plenty to love about the prospect of locking horns with Lake, be it head-to-head or in a three-way matchup of her, independent incumbent Kyrsten Sinema and Democratic challenger Rep. Ruben Gallego.

Lake is a controversial candidate with an odd number of political blemishes for someone who’s never served in office. As I’ve explained previously, Democrats have recently shown they can drop the ball when competing against such candidates in Arizona. And they certainly could do the same thing with this race. But there are plenty of things working in their favor that could put some wind at their backs. And if they know how to ride the waves of anti-Lake sentiment, it could be smooth sailing up to November. 

First, let’s talk about the things working on Lake’s behalf. Or, better yet, the thing. That is, name recognition. Lake enters the GOP primary as the favorite, thanks in part to her fervid loyalty (and, at times, bizarre closeness) to Donald Trump and, to some degree, her having been a longtime news anchor at Arizona’s Fox News affiliate.

But that’s where the benefits end, as far as I can see. She’s a high-profile MAGA extremist. That’ll help her in the primary — but it’s questionable how well that recognition plays for her in a general election next year. (We already saw it fail her in the 2022 midterms.) 

Frankly, many Arizonans see Lake’s recent turn to right-wing politics as a grift — Republicans included. And that’s just one roadblock she’ll face. Another is that she’s repeatedly cast doubt on voting machines, mail-in ballots and the legitimacy of early voting in Arizona, a state where an overwhelming majority of voters tend to cast early ballots. 

Instead, Lake supports the idea of allowing only a single day for voting using paper ballots that must be cast in person and counted by hand. Her proposal — rejected by the Arizona GOP — could both harm her campaign and inspire Arizonans to vote against her to retain their current voting rights. 

And abortion rights could factor heavily in her race, as well. In 2021, Lake called on Arizona’s Legislature to pass a law identical to Texas’ draconian Senate Bill 8, a six-week abortion ban that incentivizes citizen vigilantes to sue anyone who has helped a person get an abortion deemed illegal under the ban.

She’s since walked that back a bit, saying it would be “wonderful” if abortion was “rare and legal,” but her history of anti-abortion extremism could play a role in 2024. A coalition of reproductive rights activists and civil rights groups in Arizona are working to get a measure on the ballot next year that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution. Similar initiatives have been shown to drive liberals to the polls — with great success — since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June 2022. 

I suspect running against a devout pro-Trump, anti-abortion huckster who wants to institute widely unpopular (and arcane) voting measures in an increasingly liberal state is probably a dream scenario for some Democrats — whether they openly admit it or not.

MAGA allies frequently talk about “draining the swamp,” but there aren’t many swamps in Arizona. Plenty of lakes, though. And one, in particular, could evaporate by next November.