Now that Donald Trump’s New York trial is over, we look to his three other criminal cases to see which trial might be next. The short answer is that none are likely before the November election, and we just got news in his other state case, in Georgia, reaffirming that reality.
Neither the Georgia case nor the two federal cases have trial dates. U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon’s handling of the classified documents case in Florida has all but guaranteed there won’t be a trial there any time soon. In the federal election interference case in Washington, we’re still awaiting the Supreme Court’s ruling on Trump’s immunity claim, which has been holding that one up. The high court will next issue rulings on Thursday (we don’t know which ones beforehand), but the time the justices have taken with the immunity appeal may have already scuttled a pre-election trial (though we’ll have to see what the opinion says when it comes and how quickly things move afterward).
As for that Georgia news, we learned Monday that the state appeals court has tentatively set an Oct. 4 hearing date on the defense attempt to remove Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis from Trump’s state election interference case. The trial judge, Scott McAfee, said in March that Willis could stay on the case if her special prosecutor stepped down. The prosecutor, Nathan Wade, with whom Willis had a romantic relationship, did so. But the defense still appealed McAfee’s ruling, arguing that it hadn’t cured the alleged conflict of interest and that the case itself should be dismissed.
In his March ruling, McAfee said there wasn’t an actual conflict of interest requiring disqualification, due to the lack of proof that Willis acquired a personal stake in the prosecution or that her financial arrangements had affected the case. He also said that dismissing the indictment wasn’t appropriate, given, among other factors, that a less drastic remedy was available. He concluded that, while there was no actual conflict, an appearance of impropriety required Willis or Wade to go, effectively kicking Wade off the case.
McAfee also declined to disqualify Willis based on a speech she gave, despite the judge finding that its effect “was to cast racial aspersions at an indicted Defendant’s decision to file this pretrial motion.” The defense disqualification effort was led by counsel for Trump co-defendant Michael Roman, who was just charged in Wisconsin state court in connection with alleged 2020 election subversion there as well.
McAfee noted that the law on this subject in Georgia is unsettled, making it unsurprising that the state appeals court agreed to consider the defense appeal. And even before this latest news, a Trump pre-election trial in Georgia seemed unlikely.
The main question, then, is whether Willis and her office can stay on the case — or whether the appeals court will go further than McAfee, by reaching different legal conclusions than he did based on the facts he found.
The main question, then, is whether Willis and her office can stay on the case — or whether the appeals court will go further than McAfee, by reaching different legal conclusions than he did based on the facts he found. We might not know the answer until next year, making the issue less one of precise timing than of the fate of the case itself. If Willis and her office are disqualified, then a new office or prosecutor would need to be assigned by a state panel, which would at least further delay the complex, multi-defendant case.
If Trump wins the White House in November, then he will likely use his presidential power to dismiss his federal cases, putting even greater emphasis on the Georgia prosecution, because presidents can’t dismiss or pardon state cases. The presumptive GOP nominee’s New York state case, for which he is due to be sentenced on July 11, will likely be his only criminal trial before the election. How this Georgia appeal is resolved may determine whether it’s his only other criminal trial that ever goes forward, or at least how far in the future it will take place.
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