After another compelling week for Democrats, Vice President Kamala Harris hit the road with her newly minted running mate, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. To illuminate the upshot of the pick strategically, Former Senator Claire McCaskill is joined by guest co-host David Jolly, former Congressman of Florida’s 13th District. The pair analyze the shifting dynamics in the race, which had been Trump’s to lose, and why Harris has been underestimated in the past. Then, they’re joined by Politico’s politics bureau chief Jonathan Martin, who attended Walz’ debut in Philadelphia, to glean what he brings to the ticket and how the Trump campaign is responding.
Also, a note to our listeners: Claire’s good friend and co-host here on ‘How To Win’, Jennifer Palmieri, has moved on from our MSNBC and podcast family to join the Harris-Walz campaign. She’ll be taking her wisdom and expertise to literally sort out how to win this fall. We love you Jen, and we wish you all the best!
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Note: This is a rough transcript. Please excuse any typos.
Claire McCaskill: Hello, and welcome to “How to Win 2024”. It’s Thursday morning, August 8th. I’m Claire McCaskill. And I’m here with my guest co-pilot today, former Florida Congressman David Jolly. Hey, David, it’s great to be with you.
David Jolly: I’m so excited to be with you. My only fear is you’re going to lose a lot of listeners by replacing Jen with me for a week. That’s terrible news.
Claire McCaskill: Yeah, I know. And let’s talk about that just for a minute. Before we get in today’s show, I want to share the news that my amazing co-host here on “How To Win,” Jen Palmieri, has moved on from our family at MSNBC in this podcast to actually join the Harris campaign. So she’s going to take her wisdom and her good humor and her expertise to literally sort out how to win in 2024. We love you Jen and we wish you all the best. And we hope to have you back to say hello between now and the election. Go get them. And now onto today’s episode, the countdown continues. Today marks 89 days to the election and Vice President Kamala Harris is officially the democratic nominee. So David and I want to break down the latest from her campaign, how she’s doing and why she’s been underestimated. And also, how Trump seems to be flailing. I mean, flailing, what was once his race to lose. And Jonathan Martin is going to join us to talk about the excitement around the VP pick. The teacher, the coach, the veteran, the governor, Tim Walz, and what he brings to the campaign. But first, we’re going to go to the strategy session. We do this David, where we talk about, if we were in the room, what would we be advising? What would we be telling the campaign that we think they ought to do? And so let’s talk about first of all, what do you think they’re doing right and what do you think they’re doing wrong?
David Jolly: I think if you’re vice president, keep doing what you’re doing. You’re doing everything right, right now. I mean, it is a remarkable chapter in her candidacy. You know, I think one thing that she needs to address, which we’ll talk about with Jonathan is this issue of not sitting down for an interview yet. Look, she’s been very busy. There’s been a lot going on in the vice president’s world so, it’s understandable she hasn’t sat down for an interview, but kind of that Lester Holt conversation that the country needs to see, when is that going to happen? And then I think the other curiosity I have is we are a nation that is watching a lot of global conflicts, and we play a leadership role in each of them from Ukraine to the Middle East, but also some tinder boxes elsewhere. You know, the vice president has four years of great experience working on national security issues with Joe Biden. What will she demonstrate with her voice and her ticket about her leadership on the world stage? I think those are two open matters for her, but they’re not detracting from anything right now. I think it’s just what’s coming up next. But as for right now, keep doing what you’re doing because you’re winning this race doing what you’re doing.
Claire McCaskill: If I were in the room, I would tell them to try to continue to bang on Republicans for Harris.
David Jolly: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: They got a pretty good swing at that this week. As somebody who knows most of the people well that are part of the Republicans for Harris group, what else can they be doing? And do you think they got a chance of getting pins? Give us your take on that.
David Jolly: I don’t think that no, I don’t actually. And this is where there’s a lot of euphoria around Vice President Harris right now and there should be. But the reality is you’re down the line Republicans like Pence and others. A lot of these former senators are still looking to save the Republican party, and they can’t do that if they actively support Vice President Harris. But the fact that they’re staying out, the fact that they’re not supporting Trump, you can ask hard questions about that decision itself, but it is a hard reflection on Donald Trump. And I think what this Republicans for Harris speaks to most importantly, is the coalition that’s available to Vice President Harris. You and I, Claire, talked about this at one point a few weeks ago, whether or not the Biden coalition instantly transfers and the Biden coalition is a little different, right? That was the soul of America coalition. That was four or five years in the making the Harris coalition now includes this entirely new energized wing from young people to voters of color, to the people you see at the rally in Atlanta and Philadelphia, that’s a different coalition than the Biden coalition. So I think if there’s an opportunity for the vice president to reach out and grow even more, it is in groups like this Republican for Harris and others that may have felt more natural being a part of the Biden coalition. People that would also vote for a Claire McCaskill, for instance.
Claire McCaskill: Right. I think there are maybe five or six of those people still out there. I don’t know. So what about this Elon Musk thing and Trump? Should the Harris campaign just ignore all that? The Peter Thiel and the Elon Musk and these billionaires that are frankly behaving. I don’t even understand how crazy these guys are. Should they be paying any attention to that? And they don’t even need to worry about money at this point, right? I mean, I think Harris is in a commanding position in terms of raising money, low-dollar donations in amounts that this country’s never seen before.
David Jolly: Yeah. I, I love that question. I’m curious your take on this as well, Claire, because you brought up money. I would say largely when it comes Trump, Elon and others, you can ignore most of what they say because the country sees it for what it is. Either it’s biblical truth for certain voters or it’s nonsensical for others. But I do think the two areas you have to pay attention to are money and misinformation and how do you quickly address those. On money, as you said, look, she’s going to be just fine it appears going toe to toe. The misinformation piece is really scary because we saw in Donald Trump over the past eight years and certainly in 2020, his willingness to create and use misinformation. And now, you have partners out there in the world particularly controlling platforms like X willing to do it as well. Is it your responsibility as a candidate to address the misinformation or to just out, you know, volume that misinformation? What’s your take on that?
Claire McCaskill: I think it is very important that she keep the advantage she appears to have right now online. And the advantage her side has online is it so organic. And I mean, I have young people in my life that all they do is get their information from TikTok. I’m not proud of that, but it is what it is. And they tell me that the change in TikTok is remarkable over the last two or three weeks that it has gone from being dominated by a lot of misinformation, to a lot of stuff that is good for Harris and Walz. And as long as that’s occurring, I know they’re tracking that at the campaign. I think they’re going to be okay. If that gets back into an imbalance situation, that’s when the misinformation really has a chance to take root. And that’s when they’ve got to aggressively put some money behind correcting the misinformation. I think what they’re doing so far, you know, I saw her first bio ad by the campaign during the Olympics last night. It’s very good. There’s been a PAC running ads. I mean, if I’m seeing ads in Missouri, they’re seeing them everywhere in the country.
David Jolly: Right.
Claire McCaskill: Because I can assure you, they are not buying ads in Missouri. So, they’re not that dumb. They are buying ads obviously in the swing states heavily, but they’re also doing some national ads, which I think is brilliant. I think the idea that they’re spending some money on national ads makes sense. And you know, so far, I don’t know what the ads look like online in terms of misinformation or on the more traditional channels on the swing states. But so far, I don’t think anything they’re pitching is being caught by the American public.
David Jolly: That’s right.
Claire McCaskill: I think they’re in a pretty good place on the misinformation. I am scared about Elon Musk because when he tweets that Kamala Harris is a communist, you know —
David Jolly: Some people believe it, right?
Claire McCaskill: — some people actually believe it and it’s just so irresponsible.
David Jolly: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: I’m ashamed to say I used to own a Tesla.
David Jolly: Hey Claire, let me ask you a question coming off of this week, the Walz announcement, the momentum continues for the vice president. At least in my words, I think you probably agree she’s doing everything right. This is just a remarkable campaign on jet fuel right now. I see two scenarios conflicting in my own analysis. One is kind of what I just described. That it almost feels like this race is over. That if this race is something beyond ideology, if it’s actually about what direction are we going? Are we all rowing in the same boat? Are we rooting for America or rooting against it? Who are we? Are we willing to tolerate racist language and racial undertones? Or are we actually better than that as a country? It almost feels like this coalition emerged that now is unstoppable, right? That’s one scenario that I think is really feasible. We might actually be in that scenario. The other scenario is, and I want to ask Jonathan about this, bring the enthusiasm back down a little bit and realize maybe America didn’t change two weeks ago. It probably didn’t. Are we still just a 50-50 race? And is this still Donald Trump’s to lose or has the ground truly shifted among the American electorate? Those are two competing scenarios. How do you see it?
Claire McCaskill: Well, I am guilty of being an optimist. I am guilty of continuing to believe in this country. I am guilty of believing that a lot of the 50-50. I’m not saying it was ever 60-40, but I think it’s probably closer to 55-45 on the side of optimism, opportunity, positive things, not grievance and you know, appealing to the lowest common denominator playing to the cheap seats. So I actually think that a lot of the 50-50 was in fact people who were worried about Joe Biden’s ability to be president at his age. And I think we’re not talking about how that has played in this.
David Jolly: Right.
Claire McCaskill: The sense of relief that people had that are not Democrats or Republicans, that really don’t like Trump, really don’t like him, that they couldn’t really get comfortable with the idea that somebody that old was going to have that big a job. And I think that it’s not just that she’s done a great campaign. It is that sense of relief that she’s really bounced. I pay a lot of attention to the cross tabs on independence because I lived and died by independence.
David Jolly: Right. Right.
Claire McCaskill: I never would’ve got elected statewide in Missouri without winning independence. So I focus on that and the independence have really popped.
David Jolly: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: You know, when you moved independence 10 points in two weeks that says a lot about Kamala Harris, but it also says a lot about how worried people were about Joe Biden’s age.
David Jolly: No, that’s right, Claire. And I actually think for Donald Trump, and I really mean this, the spark is gone. I mean, I use the analogy or a metaphor, whichever one it is of relationship that started eight years ago based on a spark, based on something that people just felt, and they don’t feel it anymore. That spark is gone. And you know it well as anybody, as a practitioner of politics, when you’ve got the momentum, you’ve got the spark, people want to be a part of it. They want to be with a winner, right? That’s the Harris campaign right now, Donald Trump’s the losing campaign that was eight years ago.
Claire McCaskill: Charlie Sykes coined the best term of all for Donald Trump’s campaign right now. He’s in the fat Elvis stage of his career.
David Jolly: I know. It’s perfect.
Claire McCaskill: It’s just perfect. People are tired of him. People are really tired of him.
David Jolly: Yeah, that’s right.
Claire McCaskill: Before we get to our guest, II got to mention the bear, the dead bear, the dead bear carcass in the back of the van. You know, when you really think about the story he told, RFK telling Roseanne Barr, I mean, this is like a “Saturday Night Live” skit. I’m sure it will be. You know that he was falconing or hawking or something and a dead bear and it ended up in his car. And then he had to go to Luger’s for a fancy steak dinner and no time for a shower. And he had his hand inside the bear’s bloody mouth and then he thinks it’s a good idea, but he drops by Central Park and happens to have a bike in the car. And then somehow the bike and the bear end up in the park and then he ends up to going to Luger’s. And then he is got to get to the airport. And you know, I mean, Tim Miller did a hysterical bit with Sam Stein on this, you know, as an assassination type moment by moment analysis of the tape of him explaining this. I mean, this guy is going to end up at 1 percent. I predict he’ll end up at 1 percent
David Jolly: And there’ll be 1 percent from Trump because here’s what I’ll tell you from his vaccine denialism to a dead bear, RFK, Jr. keeps doing everything possible to take voters from Donald Trump.
Claire McCaskill: Exactly.
David Jolly: He’s not taking voters from Kamala Harris.
Claire McCaskill: They love the dead bear. They love skinning a dead bear and eating bear meat. I know those people. We have a bunch of them in Missouri. And there’s nothing wrong with it. Nothing wrong with it. You can hunt and skin and eat bear meat all you want as long as it’s legal. I would not be recommending dumping the carcass in Central Park, however. All right. We’ll pause here. Up next, “Politico’s” politics bureau chief Jonathan Martin joins us to give us take on Governor Tim Walz after seeing his debut with Vice President Harris. Back in a moment.
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Claire McCaskill: Welcome back. My co-host former Congressman of Florida’s 13th congressional district, David Jolly, is still with me. So David, after a couple of weeks of veep vetting by Vice President Harris and her team, we have emerged with coach put that one first, veteran, put that one second, teacher, and then like a little bitty letters, Congressman and governor —
David Jolly: Right.
Claire McCaskill: — Tim Walz as her choice. After a kickoff Tuesday in Philly, they hit a Midwest tour of Wisconsin in Michigan. Jonathan Martin was there in Philly as Coach Walz was introduced to voters and he joins us now. He’s the politics bureau chief and senior political columnist at “Politico.” And previously, Jonathan was the national political correspondent for “The New York Times.” He’s also the co-author of “The New York Times” bestseller, “This Will Not Pass: Trump, Biden and the Battle for America’s Future,” which focused on the 2020 election and its aftermath. Welcome, Jonathan. And by the way, it’s not in his biography, but he’s like in everybody’s ear. He’s kind of obnoxious. Like no matter what’s going on, I usually hear from Jonathan, and I know he only has about 400 people like me. This is a guy who has tentacles that are constantly squirming out there in the world of politics, pulling in all the little creatures he can into his world. So he knows more than everybody else.
Jonathan Martin: Oh, Lord.
Claire McCaskill: And he is very hard to say no to. I mean, because you know, he’s kind of Midwest nice, like Coach Walz.
David Jolly: I love it.
Claire McCaskill: So welcome, Jonathan.
Jonathan Martin: Of all the Introductions I’ve ever had, that is the most recent as the old joke goes. No, that is high praise. Senator, thank you so much for that compliment. I’m quite vivid, but I’m grateful to be on the pod. Thank you for having me.
Claire McCaskill: Yeah. It’s nice of you to come. Okay, so you talked about the kickoff in Philly with the headline Harris chooses comfort food, will America bite? And I’ve been calling him mac and cheese in a trip to the hardware store. So we’re thinking the same way.
Jonathan Martin: Yes.
Claire McCaskill: Give us your bottom-line takeaways.
Jonathan Martin: I think the far-right and the far-left were so wrong about this pick. She didn’t snub Shapiro because he’s Jewish and she didn’t pick Walz because she was suddenly taken with the righteousness of the Palestinian cause and wanted to stand up to the sort of centrist of the Democratic Party and show her like diehard left-wing roots. Both those lines are BS. She picked him, Walz, because she had a personal connection with him. She had chemistry with somebody who’s the same age as her, who I think frankly is kind of an upper Midwest version of Doug Emhoff. He’s an affable, decent normal guy who she could connect with. And also frankly, Claire, who wasn’t going to overshadow her, who was a compliment to her. And I think that that had everything to do with this. And by the way, that debut in Philly, I think vindicated her assessment because it shows Shapiro’s chops and the how Shapiro could in fact, overshadow her. And it demonstrated how Walz I think is a good compliment to her, classic Midwestern, small town teacher, coach, veteran with a liberal California prosecutor. It makes sense. And so I think that was her thinking and I think, you know, so far proven to be right.
David Jolly: Hey Jonathan, can we jump on the Philly —
Jonathan Martin: Yeah.
David Jolly: — event for a minute because we saw Josh Shapiro with all of his —
Jonathan Martin: Yeah, exactly.
David Jolly: — and all of his loyalties, right? I mean, what’s amazing is all of the contenders for vice president really stuck together, even hosted rallies without Harris leading into the event. At the same time, he didn’t have a choice, right? He had to be. Had he not been there, it would’ve been a story.
Jonathan Martin: Yes.
David Jolly: And so he was there with five days to go the Harris-Walz ticket, watched Shapiro, working the Keystone state, very hard, going through Pennsylvania to win this thing. Do you see any daylight coming out of this? Some of the reporting that well, Shapiro, this is a perfect situation for him because now he can support the ticket, but not be tied to it. This is an ambitious governor who one day wants to run for the White House. You were in the room. What’s your read on the energy there?
Jonathan Martin: I think it would’ve been a difficult relationship between the two of them if they had won because they’re so damn similar, right? They’re hard charging coastal lawyers and, I think it would’ve been scorpions in a bottle, frankly. And I think that sort of makes sense. Now, look, let’s not pretend like Tim Walz is somehow some shy and retiring figure. He said the right things during his interview with her and said he wanted to be helpful however he could. He had no greater ambitions. Give me a break. Okay. He’s a congressman turned two-term governor. He has plenty of ambition. He just knows what to say in the right places. But don’t tell me that Tim Walz wouldn’t love to be president one day, okay, because I’m sure he would. You don’t do that job if you don’t have at least some inkling on running for president yourself. But look, if you’re Shapiro, the ticket wins this fall. You’re probably going to be a two-term Democratic governor of a really (inaudible) state, unless something happens in 2026, and he loses his re-elect. And then you’re looking at 2030, and he’s still going to be a fairly young guy at the doorstep of 60 by then and could certainly run for president in ‘32. So that’s a long ways away. And obviously, if Harris loses this fall, Shapiro’s going to be top of the list, David, for ‘28.
David Jolly: Yeah. And I asked that very quickly, Claire, because what has been amazing since all of the conversation around Biden to now is how all of the principles leading principles in today’s Democratic Party have kind of done everything, right? We talk about how Harris has done everything, right. But you know, Harris’ VP stuck with Biden, defended Biden. Walz was the Democratic Governors Association spokesperson who walked out of the White House and said we’re with Joe. And then as it all shifted and Harris was the presumptive nominee, all of these key players with their own ambitions also rallied around the vice president. It’s been a really remarkable moment for democratic unity.
Jonathan Martin: Nothing focuses the mind like the thread of a political hanging, right. David, I mean.
Claire McCaskill: Yeah. You know, I will tell you that I was in a weird, weird position for two weeks. David, as you know, painfully, we were on panels together where I was meekly, but affirmatively stating in every way I could, other than he must drop out that we had a problem, and it had to be addressed. And what I knew that a lot of people didn’t know is how furiously people were working behind the scenes in ways that were productive. And I will just say this, and I don’t know if Jonathan Martin will agree with me, but Chuck Schumer doesn’t get enough credit. He really doesn’t. Chuck Schumer was doing everything that he needed to do, including saying all the right things publicly, doing all the right things privately, getting all the battleground states polling done about a week out so they had that data. And it’s a blessing curse, but in this instance, a blessing that we have real Senate races in every single state that she has to win. So, yeah, I’m proud of the democratic leadership and how this has all come through. And I think the reasons Jonathan gave for her picking him are exactly right. He augments her. He doesn’t mirror her. And you know, I will say, I think maybe the only person who might be slightly disappointed is Amy Klobuchar.
Jonathan Martin: Your classmate.
Claire McCaskill: I know. I know because this makes her path forward a little difficult because I think we all know she would like to run again someday, but she’s close friends with Tim Walz and I know she’s enthusiastic about him being vice president.
Jonathan Martin: Claire, it’s good that you mentioned Schumer because of course, Schumer was one of the fathers of the class of 2006. He was one of the architects of that democratic wave that year that elected you, that elected Tim Walz, obviously, to the House, but elected Amy Klobuchar to the Senate. And yes, elected the two most vulnerable sitting senators, Sherrod Brown and John Tester whose faith this fall depends in part on Kamala Harris and Tim Walz running a strong campaign because you know, they can survive the top of the ticket losing to their states, but they can’t survive a debacle on the top of the ticket. So all roads lead back to the class of 2006, at least when it comes to the politics of 2024. I think you’re right on Chuck. I mean, he obviously went out to Rehoboth, to Biden’s summer house and had a clearly frank and candid conversation as they say diplomatic circles. And I think everybody in politics knew that if Biden had not dropped out that Sunday afternoon, then Schumer and Pelosi and Hakeem Jeffries were going to be forced to take extreme measures that coming week and by extreme measures, I mean probably having to go public to some degree, demanding Biden drop out. Biden took the sort of better part of valor and made it a sort of difficult month, slightly easier on himself, still humiliating. But obviously, it could have gotten a lot worse that week. And I do think Schumer and company were going to have to go further if Biden hadn’t dropped out.
Claire McCaskill: Do you think they made a mistake in Philly not mentioning Joe Biden’s name?
Jonathan Martin: I do. Yeah. I think that would’ve been a nice touch on the top of the VP’s remarks to have tipped a hat to him. Let’s be honest. Philadelphia is basically Biden’s backyard. It’s his de facto sort of major Metro areas. Campaign was based there in 2020. His wife is from there. It would’ve been a nice touch. I got to thank Claire that she’ll use her acceptance speech in Chicago to do a nice homage to Biden, but you’re right, missed opportunity in Philly.
David Jolly: So Jonathan, let me ask you a question. This is where my political coalition, if you will, now that I’m out of office as an independent —
Jonathan Martin: Yeah.
David Jolly: — is I ally with the democratic coalition though I’m not one. And so that’s also where on this matter, I was a little more quick to just accept the direction it was going until I was told it was going another direction. Claire much more experienced at the backroom dealings on some of this stuff. But if you look at this Harris-Walz ticket and how it’s setting up, I do wonder if there are vulnerabilities around national security at a time when there are wars breaking out in the world, the Middle East really is a tinder box that could change tomorrow. You do have two candidates in Harris and Walz with experience, with national security chops. Obviously, the sitting vice president with her four years. Walz with his career as a National Guardsman and all the work he’s done on behalf of veterans as well. I realize it’s not the most poll tested issue right now, but it’s one of those issues that kind of has to get attended to. Do you see the Harris-Walz ticket being able to address some of the concerns about global unrest or do you see them really getting to find in a Clinton-Gore domestic policy way and who chooses how they get defined?
Jonathan Martin: Let me answer that, two ways, David. One, I think if we do have a wider war in the Middle East or some kind of God forbid, either breakout of hostilities in the Pacific in the next 80 days, then I think we’re going to see that question come front and center, who’s better suited to be commander-in-chief. You know, absent that, I think this is much more of a referendum on do you want Donald Trump back in office? Which frankly has been the defining question of American politics for nine years now, which is Donald Trump, which side are you on? It reminds me of like a modern, smaller scale, more limited version of the civil war in America for decades after the civil war in American politics. The only question was which side of the war were you on? And then nothing else really mattered, right? And like, you’re a great example of this. You were Republican Congressman from Florida, but obviously, you just can’t be for the Trump party anymore because that’s the defining question. It’s not right and left. It’s not issue based. It’s are you forward against Trump? I still think that’s central in some kind of a major national security conflict or the sort of mushrooming of the current conflicts going on. Lastly, I’ll just say this. I think Trump is going to use their debate if they do have one, I think it looks like that that they will, to say something along the lines of, you know, the world leaders, Putin or whatever, they’re not going to be scared of you. They’re going to laugh at you.
David Jolly: Right.
Jonathan Martin: I mean, I think that’s going to be one of Trump’s major lines of attack is to say that you can’t be commander-in-chief, that the world leaders wouldn’t take you seriously, right? And I’ll be really curious to see what her response is because she’s got to know that that’s coming, right?
Claire McCaskill: I can’t wait. Okay. So next up, speaking of how Trump and Vance are handling this new ticket.
Jonathan Martin: Not well.
Claire McCaskill: We’re going to talk about that on the other side and what the polling trends look like. Back with David jolly and Jonathan Martin in just a moment.
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Claire McCaskill: Okay. Welcome back. Former Republican and former Florida, Congressman David Jolly and I have been speaking with Jonathan Martin, who is the political politics bureau chief and senior political columnist. Let’s talk about Trump and the GOP’s reaction to the Walz pick specifically. It really seems really weak. And I got to tell you, that thing that he did yesterday, Vance, his instincts are not good.
David Jolly: Yeah.
Claire McCaskill: That running down the tarmac to like somebody in high school going, oh, yeah, that’s going to be my plane someday and, oh, she’s not answering questions. I mean, it looks so bush league. It did not look anywhere close to leader. I know he is trying to emulate, you know, tricks that Trump would do, but what’s your take on how these guys have tried to frame this race and how they fail to frame this race.
Jonathan Martin: There’s a saying, as you know, Claire in politics about, you know, living off the land and when you don’t have a coherent singular message, you tend to live off the land. So when the stock market crashes on Monday, you’re living off of the Kamala crash. The economy’s going to hell on the hand basket. Oh, well there was a recovery on Wall Street, Tuesday, never mind. Okay, and now we’ll focus on Kamala is not answering questions from the press. So we’ll go over on the tarmac. It’s reflective of the lack of a consistent, straightforward message. It’s the economy, stupid, hope and change, compassionate conservatism, you know, restoring the soul of America. If you don’t have a coherent, straightforward bumper sticker pitch, then you’re going to be living with whatever the news cycle gives you day in, day out.
Claire McCaskill: Like we won’t go back.
Jonathan Martin: There you go.
David Jolly: I actually would not be surprised Claire and Jonathan, if Trump tries to swap out J.D. Vance.
Claire McCaskill: Really.
David Jolly: I realize it’s really late and I realize there’s ballot type. Here’s why. This is a former president who fired senior officials by tweet.
Jonathan Martin: Yes.
Claire McCaskill: Right? When he’s done with somebody he’s done. He also knows, the one thing he knows is showmanship is grabbing a news cycle. He’s smart enough to know that the vice president and Governor Walz have all the momentum right now, all of it. And the Trump campaign is in a free fall, and nothing is working for him. He has to have a reset. I really think he is in a free fall. And where does he get that reset? He’s not capable of changing kind of the racial undertones or outright racist language. He’s not capable of stopping the insults. The one thing he can do is try to create some type of news story for a couple weeks around swapping that.
Jonathan Martin: Yeah. I’m really curious what he says if there’s news conference of Mar-a-Lago. But my instinct is that if he does make a change, it would probably be with his staff rather than Vance just because changing your VP pick is so much more disruptive and convulsive to the campaign.
David Jolly: But we’re talking about Trump.
Jonathan Martin: Yeah.
David Jolly: So Jonathan, let me ask you though a question following up on this because I do think in the horse race analysis, Trump’s in a free fall. Harris has all the momentum, they’re doing everything, right? So among democratic activists and voters and democratic allies, there’s a bit of a high right now that, wow, this is going to last. We’re going to win this thing. It’s over. This race is over. Fundamentally though, we know America didn’t change two weeks ago just because Biden stepped out —
Jonathan Martin: Right.
David Jolly: — and Harris stepped in. And you could argue the race is still Donald Trump’s to lose, but he’s just doing the things to lose it right now.
Jonathan Martin: Yes.
David Jolly: As a seasoned journalist, how do you read the room nationally on where this race really is?
Jonathan Martin: A very competitive race. It’s an evenly divided country when you look at the Electoral College. Look, Trump is forever going to be a 46 to 47 percent plurality. He’s not going to sniff a majority in this country, but he doesn’t have to, like, we don’t have a popular vote. So yeah, it’s still a really close race because the map structurally tends to be stronger for today’s Republican coalition. It’s easier for them to find past to 270. And yeah, you’re asking the country to support a California liberal, which is not an easy ask, right? This is not Claire McCaskill and Heidi Heitkamp on top of the ticket. So it is tough when you go into places like Wisconsin and Michigan. It’s not impossible, but obviously, is not easy. I think Harris is going to need a lot of help from Trump. I think you’re right, David. I think Trump is capable of losing this race more than Harris is capable of winning it, you know? And he may do just that.
Claire McCaskill: Well, I’m going to disagree with you a little bit there.
Jonathan Martin: Please.
Claire McCaskill: I actually believe, and you and I may have talked about this before, but I don’t think people appreciate the jungle that is California primary races. I don’t think people appreciate how hard it is as a Democrat to emerge, first to be the D.A. of San Francisco and then to be attorney general of California and then to become United States Senator. I mean, California is bigger than most countries and there are lots and lots of people who want to be what Kamala Harris has been in California. She is particularly good at this. And I think what happened to her is that her presidential race —
Jonathan Martin: Yes.
Claire McCaskill: — did not go well for a lot of —
Jonathan Martin: Right.
Claire McCaskill: — complicated reasons that they’ll probably be several books written about now.
Jonathan Martin: Yes.
Claire McCaskill: And then her first two years in the vice presidency were very rough and she was really taking it too much to heart that she was being diminished as vice president, but she has gone back to her skill set. And I watched her with those hecklers yesterday. She did really well. Her timing has been impeccable. Her choice of Walz has been impeccable. I really think she is much better at this still than people are giving her credit. I may not get it that she can lose this race, but I believe she can win this race too.
Jonathan Martin: Let me say two things in response. One is I having covered her when she was the A.G. and Senator in California, you’re right. She’s more talented than her belly flop of a campaign in ‘20 and her rough couple of years in the White House show. She does have real talent. She’s proven that this week on the trail. I guess where I would push back a little bit is to say, yeah, she navigated the California thicket, but that’s a thicket that is like far-left, center-left and center. And it takes a certain level of dexterity, but you’re navigating basically everything that’s either from the center to the left. I think it’s tougher now because she’s not had the navigate places like you did, you know, go into a place like a Joplin, Missouri. That’s just not been what she’s had to do. And frankly, been ill served by the White House that has not put her in front of VFW conventions and Legion conventions but has had her doing entirely base oriented work for the last three and a half years. So she’s now got 90 days to appeal to a general election audience that she hasn’t really talked to in a long time.
Claire McCaskill: I agree. I agree. And I mean, that’s a good point. I always think it’s better to have somebody on the ticket that is actually won in a state that’s hard.
David Jolly: I’m very curious if we get to November and she indeed wins this thing, which I think she will actually. I think she’s going to win this race. And I think it’ll be part of Trump’s failures, but also her true talents and her hard work. I’m curious if voters elect Kamala Harris, not necessarily because we’ve had a broad ideology debate, but because they’re voting based on who we are as a country and who we want to be. There’s something bigger at play than the traditional left, right spectrum going on.
Jonathan Martin: Absolutely. And Trump’s the stand in for that.
David Jolly: That’s right.
Jonathan Martin: It’s a, which side are you on question? Like, you know, do you find Trump to be somebody who reflects the country that you want to be a part of? It’s so much bigger than right versus left. And it’s why the Biden coalition is so precarious. I mean, because you create a coalition that includes the David Jolly’s of the world, like the Cheney family, all the way to like AOC, an actual socialist. Well, that’s a pretty ungainly coalition right there, right? It’s a powerful one because it includes like everything from, you know, Brooklyn hipsters to the Ladue country club player, but like it’s tough to sustain and it depends on Trump saying and doing crazy shit, you know?
Claire McCaskill: Yeah. Well, I’m betting on it. I’m betting on the crazy shit. But before we go, I’d like your take Jonathan on, if you think this issue they’re trying to use on Walz is going to have any kind of impact whatsoever from a guy running for president that had bone spurs, this National Guard thing. Do you think this is a chance in hell of moving a number for him?
Jonathan Martin: I think absent new and damning information, I’m skeptical. Look, if there are e-mails or if there are recordings of Walz talking about bailing from the Guard because he got word that they were going to be deployed to combat, I think it’s a much tougher scenario. I think absent that, I don’t think it’s going to pop.
Claire McCaskill: Yeah, I agree. You know, I mean, and let’s remember Vance was a war correspondent, not to diminish —
Jonathan Martin: Thank you.
Claire McCaskill: — people who write for a living, J-Mart.
David Jolly: Exactly.
Claire McCaskill: But this is no Jim Webb.
Jonathan Martin: There you go. There you go. There you go.
Claire McCaskill: Okay. David, don’t you think we should get Jonathan to opine about the polling before we go?
David Jolly: Oh, I agree. That’s kind of where —
Jonathan Martin: Yeah.
David Jolly: — I was going because I think everything’s going right for Harris and her numbers could hit 60 at this rate and trumps could hit 40 —
Jonathan Martin: Yeah.
David Jolly: — because he’s so bad at this. And I guess that’s where the reality check from —
Jonathan Martin: Yes.
David Jolly: — from you, Jonathan. What does it take, let’s say for Trump to stop the bleeding, because if Trump doesn’t stop the bleeding, I presume you would agree, the polls don’t start to change if Trump doesn’t change his candidacy.
Jonathan Martin: Yeah, which is why this debate matters and which is why I think Trump’s going to give in regardless of who broadcast it because Trump needs just like Biden did frankly this spring to change the conversation. And I think that a debate in which Kamala Harris has a bad moment or two could change the contours of this race. So, prepare America, I think we’re going to see a debate in September.
David Jolly: Could I ask you very quickly on that, Jonathan, because I asked the national security question. Related to that, the Republican charge that she won’t sit down with the press. I mean, they’re really hammering on this issue that she has yet to sit down with the press. What’s your read on that as a member of the press?
Jonathan Martin: Look, the longer she delays it, she just raises the stakes. If she and Walz were doing regular interviews on the campaign trail, forget national. Just do your affiliate stuff on the way, you keep the press at bay, and you lower the stakes. By doing this now it just raises, I think unwisely, it just raises the stakes for whenever they do a sit down and I don’t get why they’d want to do that. And I think frankly, it reflects a lack of confidence in the candidate.
Claire McCaskill: Yeah. I think the affiliate anchors is what she should start doing, you know, 10, 15 minutes with affiliate anchors because they’re going to be, you know, as long as they don’t go to that kid in Colorado, that’s making a national name for himself. I think she would do really, really well. And frankly, I think she’ll surprise people in the interviews too. I don’t know why they’re hesitating.
Jonathan Martin: She has been so much more confident this week than I’ve seen her in the three and a half years as vice president. It’s a whole new person, you know?
Claire McCaskill: Okay. J-Mart, thank you so much for your time.
Jonathan Martin: What a treat.
Claire McCaskill: We are honored to have had you. And hopefully, we will talk to you again before we get to the end.
Jonathan Martin: Would love to.
Claire McCaskill: Okay. So Jonathan Martin is “Politico’s” politics bureau chief. And let me do this, don’t forget the book, “This Will Not Pass: Trump Biden and the Battle for America’s Future.” If you haven’t read it, I actually have, I don’t want to admit that to you because that’s a confession that you’ll probably use against me. I thought it was actually very, very good. So I recommend it for people who want to understand exactly what happened around 2020 and why it all matters today. So, thanks.
Jonathan Martin: Thanks guys.
Claire McCaskill: Yep. All right. And let do this. My guest co-pilot today, former Republican and former Florida Congressman David Jolly. Thanks for coming.
David Jolly: Thank you.
Claire McCaskill: Before we head out, two things. One, remember we have Tim Walz’s winning hot dish recipe in the notes for the podcast we did with him a few weeks ago. Look for it, cook it for your family and celebrate Tim Walz being the vice presidential candidate. Secondly, I want to remind you about MSNBC premium. It’s a special subscription offering on Apple podcasts. When you subscribe, you’ll get new episodes of “How to Win 2024” and all of MSNBC’s original podcasts ad free, plus exclusive bonus content every month. Next week, you can get a premium episode from our friends on the “Prosecuting Donald Trump” podcast where veteran prosecutors Andrew Weissmann and Mary McCord dig into President Biden’s proposed Supreme Court reforms. Subscribe to MSNBC premium on Apple podcasts, right from your phone or on whatever device you’re listening to listen to that episode and more. The show is produced by Vicki Vergolina. Janmaris Perez is our associate producer. Catherine Anderson and Bob Mallory are our audio engineers. Our head of audio production is Bryon Barnes. Aisha Turner is the executive producer for MSNBC audio and Rebecca Kutler is the senior vice president for content strategy at MSNBC. Search for “How to Win 2024” wherever you get your podcasts and follow the series.