Since he came down the golden escalator at Trump Tower a decade ago, President Donald Trump has leaned into immigration as a core issue.
But as he heads into next year’s midterm elections, it may not be giving him the boost he wants.
Since taking office in January, Trump has pushed hard to restrict immigration, ramp up deportations and expand border enforcement, even as polls show voters list the economy as their top concern. “I always felt the border was first,” he told House Republicans in January.
Trump has even acknowledged that his own aides are trying to get him to shift focus, claiming that the issue has lost salience with voters because his administration has been so effective.
“Before I was running, that’s all they talked about: the border, the border, the border,” Trump said last week at a rally in Pennsylvania. “Now I fixed it, nobody wants to talk about it. Even my people, they say, ‘Sir, don’t put it in your speech.’”
Voters aren’t just naming other priorities, mainly the cost of living, but polls show that they are increasingly opposed to the president’s heavy-handed approach to mass deportations and feeling more positive about the contributions of immigrants.
A record share of Americans considered immigration a “good thing” for the country this year, according to a Gallup survey analyzing more than two decades of history. An AP-NORC nationwide poll conducted in early December found that Trump’s approval rating on immigration generally hit its lowest point of 2025 — falling 11 points since the survey started in March.
Only 38% of Americans now endorse his handling of immigration. Of that cohort, just 26% of independent voters — a coveted voting bloc— approved of Trump’s oversight of immigration, according to AP-NORC data shared with MS NOW.
Trump’s approach still has overwhelming support among Republicans, though that has dropped eight points, to 80%, since May.
Trump notably received the endorsement of half of participants in the survey for his management of border security, which the president said that he “campaigned very, very strongly on.” On Monday, Trump gave out the first-ever “Mexican Border Defense Medal” to service members in the Oval Office.
While the president tends to blur immigration and border security, polls show that voters have a more nuanced take
While the president tends to blur immigration and border security, polls show that voters have a more nuanced take, treating them as separate issues.
Jennifer Benz, the director of the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, told MS NOW that Trump’s approval rating on border security has held “fairly steady” this year. However, “looking specifically at immigration and the tactics around deportation,” Benz continued, “there’s signals of decline.”
Trump’s decision to empower U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement to deport millions of immigrants has played a role as well.
Over the past year, ICE agents have detained people across the country in front yards and school parking lots in videos that have gone viral online. A number of American citizens have been stopped and even detained by ICE agents, leading to allegations of racial profiling, which Department of Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem has strongly denied.
Closing the border is “arguably one of the only issues that the president and this administration have done a fine job of,” said Matthew Bartlett, a Republican strategist and Trump appointee from the first administration. “That does not necessarily mean that the issues of illegal immigration, and ICE’s posture or actions, are going to continue to be as widely acclaimed as the border.”
53% said the administration is doing “too much” to deport immigrants
Another survey published Monday by the Pew Research Center revealed that 53% of participants said the administration is doing “too much” to deport immigrants living in the country illegally. The majority of Hispanic adults, especially compared with other racial groups, indicated being worried that a family member or a close friend could face deportation.
“I will concede that we’ve got to look harder at our process for deportation,” White House chief of staff Susie Wiles told Vanity Fair as part of a series of interviews published Tuesday. “I think our process has to lean toward a double-check.”
A sizable portion of Hispanic voters moved to Trump’s coalition during the 2024 election, likely driven by frustrations with inflation, according to Republican strategists. However, continued concerns about affordability, compounded “with the tactics of ICE,” could cause Hispanic voters to swing back to Democrats, Barlett noted.
Earlier this month, the White House significantly heightened restrictions on legal pathways to entry to the U.S. in the aftermath of a shooting in Washington on two National Guard troops. The alleged shooter, who killed one of those soldiers, was an Afghan national granted asylum in April.
The president initially said his deportation effort would target the “worst of the worst,” vowing to prioritize undocumented people with criminal records. But data published by the Transactional Records Access Clearinghouse in November showed that 73% of those detained by ICE in 2025 had no criminal convictions.
When asked about those statistics, Trump officials typically push back by arguing that living in the U.S. without proper documentation is a crime, although it is often a civil offense or, when criminal, a misdemeanor.
The president has also ramped up harsh and at times derogatory rhetoric against immigrants, particularly from certain ethnic groups, such as Somali immigrants.
He’s likely to continue to tout his work on border control, but that’s unlikely to give Republicans much of a boost next November, said Steve Cortes, a former Trump adviser who consults on Republican campaigns.
“With the economy as issue No. 1, 2 and 3, immigration is helpful, but I don’t think it’s decisive,” he said.
This is a preview of MS NOW’s Project 47 Newsletter. As President Trump continues implementing his ambitious agenda, get expert analysis on the administration’s latest actions and how others are pushing back sent straight to your inbox every Tuesday. Sign up now.
Akayla Gardner is a White House correspondent for MS NOW.