As the shutdown crosses into its fifth week, Republicans increasingly believe Democrats may be preparing to cave. And on the other side of the aisle, Democrats seem to think it’s Republicans who are softening.
Whether either side is actually moving remains to be seen, but both parties are taking the latest developments with a dash of optimism.
On Wednesday, Sen. Steve Daines, R-Mont., joined the growing chorus of Republicans who think they’re seeing “some cracks developing” among Democrats, as he told MSNBC.
“Hopefully the fever is starting to break,” Daines said, adding that he hopes “some common sense may finally prevail.”
But as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., said when asked about those supposed Democratic cracks, “Geez, that’s what we’re hearing about the Republican position, too.”
Normally, when you’re about to achieve a breakthrough, you’re going to have more formal negotiations, probably with three to five members on either side, and then it grows from there. I don’t see any evidence of that now.”
Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C.
Republicans think food benefits running out could be the impetus some Democrats need to break with their party. And as more Americans see their Obamacare premiums spiking over the expiration of subsidies, Democrats believe the pressure is mounting for Republicans to meet them at the negotiating table.
Throughout the shutdown, there have been some bipartisan talks — quietly, to no avail. But on Wednesday, Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said bipartisan talks among rank-and-file members had “ticked up significantly.”
Within minutes, members of his own party, some of whom are stalwart negotiators during bipartisan talks, shot it down.
When MSNBC asked Sen. Thom Tillis, R-N.C., whether he agrees with Thune’s assessment of the state of play, he had a clear answer: “No.”
“Normally, when you’re about to achieve a breakthrough, you’re going to have more formal negotiations, probably with three to five members on either side, and then it grows from there,” Tillis said. “I don’t see any evidence of that now.”
Sen. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., was even more blunt about Thune’s assessment.
“That’s a lot of wishcasting,” Gallego said.
But in Thune’s defense, there does appear to be some movement — not a ton, but some.
Shaheen is a Democratic ringleader in current iterations of bipartisan talks, and she told MSNBC on Wednesday that there had been some “good discussions.” But she bristled at the notion that Democrats were splintering.
Instead, Shaheen said select Republicans and Democrats had been talking about both ending the shutdown and negotiating a fix to the expiring subsidies, though she said she was “not gonna get into any specifics.”
Asked if she thought lawmakers were closer to finding a solution to the shutdown, Shaheen simply said, “I hope so.”
A handful of rank-and-file senators from both parties have been having daily phone calls and regular meetings, a source familiar with the talks told MSNBC, requesting anonymity to speak about the tenuous talks that are centered on health care and the shutdown.
Still, Senate leaders from both parties seem to have less faith in negotiations than the lawmakers participating in the discussions.
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., acknowledged there are “occasional talks” between senators.
“But our Republican colleagues don’t seem to be offering anything different than what their leadership has had so far,” Schumer said. “We hope that will change.”
On the Republican side, Thune also seems to have some skepticism about bipartisan negotiations. At the moment, Thune is sending senators back home for the weekend after votes on Thursday — meaning more than 40 million Americans will lose access to food assistance programs over the weekend.
The prospect of widespread hunger is certainly weighing on senators, and it’s one of the reasons lawmakers think the shutdown could be coming to a close. When MSNBC asked Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., why he had renewed hope that the shutdown would end, he pointed to “all the bad things are going to happen over the weekend.”
But as Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., said when asked about those supposed Democratic cracks, “Geez, that’s what we’re hearing about the Republican position, too.”
Nora McKee is the D.C. coordinator for MS NOW.
Ali Vitali is MS NOW's senior congressional correspondent and the host of "Way Too Early." She is the author of "Electable: Why America Hasn’t Put a Woman in the White House … Yet."
Mychael Schnell is a reporter for MS NOW.