As inflation persists, Trump attempts a messaging pivot

With his approval ratings on the economy sagging and Republicans increasingly anxious about next year’s midterm elections, President Donald Trump will travel to Pennsylvania today in an attempt to rewrite the political narrative on inflation — the issue that helped elect him but now threatens his party’s control of Congress and his own political stature.

The visit, the first in a series of domestic trips White House officials say will focus on the economy, comes as Trump’s messaging on the issue has failed to gain traction with voters. For months, he has blamed his predecessor, President Joe Biden, for inflation, boasted that his own economy is “the hottest” in the world and dismissed concerns about affordability as a “hoax,” a “scam” and a “fake narrative.” A year into his second term, polling suggests twice as many Americans now blame him for the economy’s struggles than blame Biden.

The Pennsylvania trip signals an attempt at a recalibration, but it’s unclear whether Trump can convince voters that relief is on the way in 2026 — or whether his party will pay a price in next year’s midterms.

“We need to heed the message that voters are sending us, and did send us, in the elections last month,” said Christopher Nicholas, a Pennsylvania-based Republican strategist. “We’d be foolish not to.”

“We need to heed the message that voters are sending us, and did send us, in the elections last month.”

Christopher Nicholas, a GOP strategist

The choice of venue for Trump’s speech underscores the challenge. Pennsylvania’s seventh congressional district is a working-class, politically competitive region where Republican Ryan Mackenzie narrowly won election to the House last year propelled by the same economic anxieties that helped deliver Trump the presidency.

There are fears throughout the GOP that continued discontent over inflation will boot Republicans out of office in the midterms. The stakes are particularly high in Pennsylvania, where Mackenzie and two neighboring Republican congressmen — Reps. Rob Bresnahan and Scott Perry — won by razor-thin margins and face reelection next year. All three districts are expected to be fiercely contested.

Mackenzie will attend Tuesday’s speech, according to a spokesperson from his office — a sign that proximity to Trump is still viewed as essential in today’s GOP, even as his standing among the broader populace is increasingly seen as a liability for Republicans.

The stop also carries symbolic weight: Trump’s stop in Pennsylvania also brings him within 30 miles of Scranton, Biden’s childhood hometown. The White House has blamed Biden’s policies for causing 9% inflation in 2022, and has argued that prices are still adjusting downward from those highs.

“We inherited the biggest inflation in the history of our country,” Trump told reporters Monday. “We brought it down very substantially. Now, inflation is essentially gone.”

But that argument appears to be losing traction. A Fox News poll conducted in mid-November found that 62 percent of voters hold Trump, not Biden, responsible for the economy’s current state. And the “blame Biden” approach runs head-on into the reality that the inflation rate is as high now as it was when Trump took office in January. 

“It’s a losing argument,” said Bharat Ramamurti, who served on the National Economic Council under Biden and dealt with similar economic headwinds. “He’s been in office for about a year, and so, your ability to point to things that the last president did is kind of evaporating.”

There are signs the administration is attempting a more forward-looking approach. While acknowledging the central role of immigration and foreign policy to his agenda over the past year, Trump has said that the economy “would soon be at the top of the list” of his strengths. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Kevin Hassett, the president’s chief economist, have signaled that they expect economic conditions to improve in 2026.

“Next year is going to be the year for Main Street,” Bessent said during a cabinet meeting last week.

The administration has already taken steps to address price pressures. Last month, it rolled back tariffs on more than 200 food products, including beef, coffee and fruits — a reversal that Democrats characterized as an implicit acknowledgment that Trump’s tariff policies have contributed to inflation. And this month, consumer sentiment improved for the first time since July, according to consumer survey data from the University of Michigan — though it is down substantially since Trump’s Jan. 2025 inauguration.

Still, economists warn that multiple factors could push prices higher in 2026. Lydia Mashburn Newman, an analyst at the American Institute for Economic Research who worked in Trump’s first administration, noted that continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and tax cuts from the Republican reconciliation bill could increase consumer spending and put upward pressure on prices.

“That’s going to put more money in consumers’ pockets, which isn’t a bad thing, but if that increases spending, that can also put pressure” on inflation, Mashburn Newman told MS NOW.

Perhaps the most immediate threat is a looming health care crisis. Enhanced subsidies for insurance purchased through the Affordable Care Act are set to expire at year’s end, which will cause premiums to surge for more than 20 million Americans starting in January. Rep. Mackenzie is among those swing-district Republicans who support an extension of the subsidies.

The White House has said it plans to release an alternative plan by Christmas, but there’s no clear path to any proposal gaining enough bipartisan support to pass Congress before the clock runs out.

Mashburn Newman notes that low-income consumers are likely to be most affected by the loss of the enhanced subsidies, which will, in some cases, increase insurance premiums by three- or four-fold. 

“It’s a knot of an issue,” she said. “We really need to fix the actual affordability problem.”