Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ 2024 campaign strategy could be summed up as “Trump, but competent.” Initially, it was a potentially promising lane: DeSantis, theoretically, could’ve renewed the MAGA agenda with new energy and picked up relative Republican moderates rankled by former President Donald Trump’s character and legal troubles.
But Trump remains king of the GOP, and Republican moderates haven’t flocked to DeSantis. Instead, the governor seems to have struck upon the worst of both worlds: “Not Trump, and yet, too extreme.”
DeSantis’ struggle highlights how hard it is to be Trumpian without being Trump.
The latest alarming sign for DeSantis’ future comes from Iowa. A new NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll shows that former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley is now tied with DeSantis in the GOP’s first nominating contest. Both have the support of 16% of likely Republican caucusgoers. That’s a striking win for Haley: In the same poll in August, DeSantis had 19% to Haley’s 6%. What has happened in the meantime is that Haley has emerged as the GOP’s most popular “moderate” politician because of her savvy debate performances and even-tempered messaging that masks many of her extreme beliefs.
Neither Haley nor DeSantis is anywhere close to Trump — who held the support of over 40% of voters in August and October — but the poll underscores how deep a hole DeSantis is in. DeSantis has invested tremendous resources in Iowa through his allocation of campaign staff, his field operation, and working to secure local endorsements. It’s a bid to find a high-profile early contest win that could conceivably give him a chance to spark voter attention, be seen as viable and build rapid momentum. But those efforts aren’t paying off, and his candidacy appears to be devolving from far-fetched to lost cause. In September his campaign tried to manage declining expectations by comically claiming a “strong second-place showing” in Iowa would be respectable. What’s the campaign going to do now — invite further ridicule by claiming a third-place win would be acceptable? In addition to Haley’s catching up with DeSantis in Iowa, a Suffolk University/Boston Globe/USA Today survey earlier in October showed her outstripping DeSantis in New Hampshire 19% to 10%.








