UPDATE (June 30, 7:32 p.m. ET): France’s far-right National Rally is in the lead in the first round of voting.
Europe (and much of the rest of the world) woke up Friday morning with one more worry. Following President Joe Biden’s shaky debate performance, America’s role as one of Europe’s main partners in the fight against spreading autocracy may be in doubt. The timing is ominous, with France’s ascendant right-wing coalition pushing for gains in Sunday’s snap election. Meanwhile Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s hardly democratic leader and Vladimir Putin’s stalking horse in Europe, takes over the reins of the European Union council for six months on July 1 as part of the 27-nation community’s rotating system of leadership.
After what the leading French daily Le Monde called his ‘shipwreck’ of a debate, Europe may not be able to depend on Washington.
When the EU’s council presidency rotation was first established, the continent was far more uniformly democratic and less vulnerable to tensions that are today threatening to tear the union apart. A resurgent bloc of right-wing legislators will take their seats in the European Parliament in Strasbourg on July 16. Many had hoped Biden might help bolster at least some of Europe’s democratic agenda during four trips across the Atlantic in June. Now, after what the leading French daily Le Monde called his “shipwreck” of a debate, Europe may not be able to depend on Washington to offer calm and collected counsel in the near future.
France’s election will be an important harbinger of what the West may look like in January 2025. France’s far-right National Rally (RN) party is polling very well ahead of national parliamentary elections.
Horrified EU bureaucrats have been doing their best to accelerate a host of priorities before Orbán takes over the council, and “insulate EU decisions from Viktor Orbán’s increasing use of vetoes,” as the Financial Times noted earlier this week. But David Carretta, perhaps the leading observer of EU goings-on, argues much of EU leadership still appears paralyzed by “business as usual.”
This lack of urgency pairs unpalatably with a growing sense of rudderlessness. Since the retirement of German Chancellor Angela Merkel in 2021, that country, long the anchor of the European Union, has been in a seemingly bottomless economic and political spiral. A combination of inflation, high interest rates and fears over unrestrained immigration have led to a resurgence of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, which itself is now sending over a dozen members to the EU Parliament.
With Merkel’s departure, Europe also lost its longtime pilot. Although French President Emmanuel Macron lusted after that post, a host of speed bumps at home have prevented him from assuming this role. Meanwhile, Europe teeters on a precipice of toxic antidemocratic feeling.
Meanwhile, Europe teeters on a precipice of toxic antidemocratic feeling.
Many of the world’s autocrats welcome this new shift in perspective. For Putin, it could mean the beginning of the end of unrestrained Western help for the nation he invaded two years ago and has still failed to conquer. For China’s Xi Jinping, it could mean a shift in the balance of trade and a more favorable attitude toward Chinese electric cars. Donald Trump has pledged to end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. Orbán, of course, will bring his own priorities to his new leadership post. As he declared in a 2023 interview, “We should try to go ever further in, we should occupy positions, we should gather allies, and we should mend the European Union.” Indeed, one of his first acts, before even taking office, was to unveil the tagline for his presidency: “Make Europe Great Again,” or as his EU affairs minister János Bóka explained, “a reference to an active presidency.” Just a prelude to July. Orban is looking to dismantle aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia, while putting a stake through climate deals, global taxation initiatives, and agendas friendly to migrants and the LGBTQ community. (This is all very much in line with the presumed priorities of a new Trump administration, for what it’s worth.) Amid this toxic stewpot, the Biden administration, especially now with its wounded leader, appears ill-equipped to push back. Instead, Europe and so many parts of the world that look to the West for democratic leadership may be forced to find ways to Trump-proof themselves.
David A. Andelman
David A. Andelman, formerly a correspondent for The New York Times and CBS News in Europe and Asia, is executive director of The RedLines Project, a multidisciplinary study of the nature and origin of political, military, social and cultural red lines around the world. He wrote "A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars That Might Still Happen" and blogs at Andelman Unleashed. He was awarded France’s Légion d’Honneur in 2021. 
