Politico reported Saturday that last month it began receiving internal documents, reportedly assessed as authentic by two knowledgeable sources, that seem to have been hacked from within the Trump campaign. Also on Saturday, The Washington Post revealed that it had received similar documents two days before. The Trump campaign issued a statement Saturday asserting that it had been hacked and blamed Iran. As a former assistant director for counterintelligence at the FBI, I have questions.
As a former assistant director for counterintelligence at the FBI, I have questions.
The documents in question reportedly include a 271-page research document containing the results of Trump’s vetting of vice presidential nominee JD Vance. Forbes referred to that document as Vance’s “dirty laundry dossier,” implying that it might contain information painting Vance in a more unfavorable light than the struggling candidate is already in. Politico provided intriguing details of the email it received offering the material:
“The person said they had a ‘variety of documents from [Trump’s] legal and court documents to internal campaign discussions.’ Asked how they had obtained the documents, the person responded: ‘I suggest you don’t be curious about where I got them from. Any answer to this question, will compromise me and also legally restricts you from publishing them.’”
Here are three questions that should be foremost on our minds as we process this alleged foreign attack on our election process.
First, could it be true?
Reports of the hack are eerily consistent with a report Friday from the Microsoft Threat Analysis Center. Microsoft said Iran had “launched operations that Microsoft assesses are designed to gain intelligence on political campaigns and help enable them to influence the elections in the future.”
The Microsoft report then gets even more specific: “The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, or IRGC, sent a spear phishing email in June to a high-ranking official on a presidential campaign from the compromised email account of a former senior advisor.” That scenario reportedly matches the description of what happened to Trump’s campaign. Microsoft said it “notified those targeted.” Trump, on his Truth Social platform, said he was the person Microsoft had notified.
Trump and Microsoft aren’t the only ones pointing to Iran. Just last month, the U.S. Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) publicly warned us of Iran’s intentions to influence the U.S. presidential election and to sow discord in America.
When it comes to trying to mess with our election, this isn’t Iran’s first rodeo. According to a declassified ODNI report, in 2020 Iran “carried out a multi-pronged covert influence campaign intended to undercut former President Trump’s reelection prospects.” As that election approached, Facebook announced it had disrupted Iranian and Russian operations aimed at U.S. election interference.
Iran has the motive and means to carry out a cyber hack against the Trump campaign. The country wants revenge for Trump’s 2020 decision to assassinate top Qods Force general, Qassem Soleimani, by missile strike as he arrived in Baghdad. In fact, Iran doesn’t seek to simply eliminate Trump as a candidate but to eliminate him altogether. After the attempted assassination of Trump last month at a rally in Butler, Pennsylvania, we learned that U.S. intelligence agencies had detected an Iranian plot to kill the former president. On Aug. 6, a Pakistani man with ties to Iran was arrested by the FBI on charges of plotting to assassinate a U.S. official not yet publicly identified.
On Aug. 6, a Pakistani man with ties to Iran was arrested by the FBI on charges of plotting to assassinate a U.S. official not yet publicly identified.
Second, what are the reasons to doubt that the documents were hacked by Iran?
Despite all the evidence pointing to Iran, we don’t yet have the proverbial smoking gun, or laptop, in the hands of an Iranian operative. That kind of evidence may come soon, but in the interim, we might ask what else could have happened here? After all, the fruits of a successful state-sponsored malware attack against a presidential nominee ending up in the hands of a solely digital political newsroom might seem a bit, well, weird. And, while Politico may have been figuring out what to do with its unsolicited “gift,” whoever had possession of the documents may have grown impatient and forwarded it to the more traditional influencer, The Washington Post.
Could someone within the Trump campaign have leaked the documents, and why? Well, a document containing potentially injurious details on the fledgling vice presidential pick could bolster calls for his ouster. Trump can’t like the fact that he has had to increasingly defend his choice of Vance. At least one former Trump staffer insists that Trump has to replace Vance, who has already been labeled a “historically unpopular pick.” Two things can be true at the same time. Iran is intent on interfering with our next election. Yet, could it also be true that, having been warned by Microsoft of the Iranian threat, someone with the Trump campaign decided to leverage that knowledge and leak some embarrassing data about Vance, then blame Iran? We don’t yet know the timing of Microsoft’s notification to Iran’s target, but we know Microsoft started spotting Iran’s efforts against the campaign in June. The hack, or appearance thereof, also allows Trump to play the victim — a role he seems to relish. If things don’t go his way in November, don’t be surprised if Trump blames Iran, the U.S. Intelligence Community, Politico and The Washington Post for his demise. Third, why should we care? The hack, or appearance thereof, also allows Trump to play the victim — a role he seems to relish. Word of the Iran hacking allegation immediately triggered a tsunami of skepticism and even outright rejection of the claim across social media. The disbelief is understandable. Trump is a polished pro at lies and deceit, and the public, even when equipped with the latest intelligence on Iran’s cyber efforts, knows it can’t take anything Trump says at face value. The U.S. intelligence community is feverishly working to thwart foreign power attempts to disrupt our election. The FBI said it was “aware of the media reporting” on the Trump campaign incident, but declined to comment. That’s why I’m calling on the Trump campaign to fully cooperate with any FBI investigation of the alleged Iranian attack, if it isn’t cooperating already. The FBI should be as transparent as possible with its findings — given the constraints of classified details — as quickly as possible. If our intelligence agencies determine that Iran really did compromise the campaign of a major party’s presidential nominee, and we’ve reached the point where we’re so distrustful that we can’t rally against a foreign adversary’s attack on our processes, the adversary wins. We know that the Department of Justice is already reticent to do anything that might affect the outcome of an election this close to Election Day, even including the opening of a counterintelligence or criminal investigation “related to politically sensitive individuals and entities.” But, not letting us know if a nominee — any nominee — has or has not been allegedly attacked by a foreign power may have the unintended consequence of depriving us of information we need to assess before we vote.
