Last week, the Missouri Legislature moved two bills forward that, if passed, would almost guarantee progressive ballot measures never become law — even if they win a majority vote. The GOP’s vision for the future is a dark one, in which liberal voters are gerrymandered into political irrelevance federally, while being effectively denied the ability to propose ballot initiatives or even amend their state constitutions.
The GOP’s vision for the future is a dark one, in which liberal voters are gerrymandered into political irrelevance.
One proposed revision would increase the requirement for passing a constitutional amendment from the current simple majority to 57%. Another, from the Missouri House, would jack the required support all the way up to 60%. That’s in a state in which only about 40% identify as Republicans, and where most progressive ballot measures historically win about 50-55% of the popular vote. In practice, that means almost every ballot measure put to the people will fail. It’s a sweepingly anti-democratic idea. And that’s just how the GOP wants it.
The proposal’s supporters counter that amendments can still pass statewide with a simple majority, provided they also win approval in five of Missouri’s eight congressional districts. There’s just one problem: Republicans recently redrew the state’s congressional maps, and they ensured five of their shamelessly gerrymandered districts were decidedly more Republican-leaning than the rest of the state.
Republicans could have adjusted their extreme policies to better align with voters; instead, they decided it was easier to make voters matter less. In an ironic twist, each of these attacks on direct democracy must be voted on by the very people whose voices Republicans hope to silence. Demoralizing red state Democrats will be a critical part of the GOP playbook. After all, demoralized people don’t vote.
Missourians — and the rest of us — must serve as our own last line of defense against creeping Republican authoritarianism. There’s a reason Republicans fear the ballot box more than any other pillar of democracy: it’s one of the few places Americans are still empowered to reject their corrosive ideas.
“In deep red Arkansas and South Dakota, for instance, voters have rejected GOP amendments that would have made initiatives harder in recent years by wide margins,” Daily Kos Political Director David Nir told me. “Supporters of direct democracy will have the chance to remind voters of exactly what Republicans are doing, and there’s a good chance voters will say, ‘Nope.’
Direct democracy efforts like ballot initiatives have been an especially sharp thorn in Republicans’ side since the Supreme Court’s decision last June overturning Roe v. Wade. Losing your fundamental rights is a pretty big political mobilizer, and ballot initiatives written to protect reproductive rights have surged since last year. That was especially evident in ruby red Kansas last August, where voters resoundingly voted to reaffirm a legal right to abortion in what was widely viewed as a humiliating rejection of Republican anti-abortion policies.
Direct democracy efforts like ballot initiatives have been an especially sharp thorn in Republicans’ side.
Nir sees the latest Republican moves as a natural response to lefty victories. “In Florida … Republicans advanced an amendment in 2005 to increase the threshold to pass future initiatives from a simple majority to 60%. Now they want to raise it to a two-thirds supermajority to thwart the progressive measures voters keep approving.”
Republican legislatures now find themselves facing serious challenges on two fronts. Not only are progressives using direct democracy to override Republican extremism on abortion, those ballot issue campaigns are mobilizing a new generation into the political process. Now, state Republicans fear they aren’t just losing their clout — if those first-time voters return to the polls next year, it could cost them their legislative majorities.
According to data compiled by both the progressive website Daily Kos and the nonpartisan Pew Charitable Trusts, state constitutional amendments and ballot measures are among progressives’ most effective tools for building momentum and racking up substantial wins on issues as diverse as raising the minimum wage, funding public schools and legalizing marijuana. That kind of power poses a real threat to a GOP determined to turn its red state fortresses into permanent legislative majorities. In Missouri, Republican lawmakers repeatedly refused to advance legislation to legalize marijuana. Ditto with Medicaid expansion and taking partisan politics out of the redistricting process. In response, activists built broad coalitions that short-circuited Republican obstruction by taking those initiatives directly to Missourians. All three passed, but there’s a catch: Under the new laws state Republicans are proposing, both marijuana legalization and Medicaid expansion would have failed despite earning the approval of 53% of Missourians. Amendments and ballot measures don’t always need to pass in order to achieve their goals, and that makes change possible even in the reddest of red territory. Last year, Idaho’s Republican lawmakers repeatedly refused voter requests to increase funding for the state’s struggling public schools. Thanks to immovable legislative majorities, that seemed to be the end of the conversation. Red state legislatures increasingly regard citizen involvement in government as a nuisance. At least, that was the plan until a bipartisan movement of Idahoans threatened to craft a ballot measure and take the issue out of the Legislature’s hands. State Republicans clearly misjudged public support for good schools, and they knew it. Lawmakers returned to Boise to quickly pass a sweeping education spending bill that allocated $410 million in new education spending — nearly $100 million more than the ballot proposal would have generated. In a healthy democracy, that process should pass without much comment. Lawmakers misjudged the public mood, the people used a ballot process guaranteed to them under their state Constitution, and the Legislature corrected course to resolve the conflict. Unfortunately, red state legislatures increasingly regard citizen involvement in government as a nuisance to be avoided. Even if that means cutting the people out entirely.
Max Burns is a Democratic strategist and founder of Third Degree Strategies. Find him on X, @themaxburns. 
