American democracy is at stake in 2024 — and so is the fate of the Earth. Time is quickly running out on cutting greenhouse gas emissions fast enough to avert catastrophic climate change. If a Republican such as Donald Trump wins the presidency, the loss of American leadership on climate change in the crucial second half of this decade would ensure that the world blows past the threshold of calamity.
Last year was the hottest on record, filled with devastating climate change-related extreme weather events such as deadly heat waves, droughts and flash floods from an increasingly disrupted water cycle. Global average temperatures have increased 1.2℃ (2.2℉) since the dawn of the Industrial Revolution. That is perilously close to the 1.5℃ (2.7℉) that scientists say would start world-altering feedback loops: the disappearance of heat-reflecting Arctic sea ice, for example, would cause more warming by bringing heat-absorbing water to the surface.
Meeting the IPCC’s timeline will require steep emissions cuts from the U.S. and other large economies.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that staying below 1.5℃ of warming requires global greenhouse gas emissions to be cut by 43% by 2030, 60% by 2035 and reach net-zero by 2050. But emissions have kept rising in recent years, albeit at a slower pace. Meeting the IPCC’s timeline will require steep emissions cuts from the U.S. and other large economies, and more generous grants and loans for clean energy deployment from rich countries to poor ones.
None of this will be possible with a Republican in the White House. The Trump White House set back progress on fighting climate change both in terms of U.S. emissions and international relations. Trump withdrew from the Paris climate agreement, the landmark deal to try to avert catastrophic climate change by staying below 2℃ (3.6℉) of warming, and ideally to stay under 1.5℃. His administration reversed or weakened many environmental regulations, including limits on carbon dioxide emissions from power plants and leakage of methane — an extremely potent greenhouse gas — from oil and gas wells. Near the end of Trump’s term, the Rhodium Group, a research institute, calculated that just five Trump-era rule changes would increase U.S. emissions by 2035 by 1.8 billion metric tons, which is more than the combined annual emissions of Germany, Canada and the United Kingdom. (After Joe Biden became president, his agencies began creating new regulations that were as strong, or even stronger, than the Obama-era ones Trump had overturned, but that process takes years and is still ongoing.)
Biden, by contrast, is using every power of the executive branch to limit climate pollution, from regulating power plants to strengthening efficiency requirements for everything from cars to refrigerators. His administration has engaged in essential climate diplomacy, with the first special presidential envoy for climate, John Kerry, striking groundbreaking bilateral emissions-reduction agreements with China, the largest greenhouse gas emitter.
If Trump, or any like-minded Republican, takes office in 2025, the U.S. will abandon all of those efforts, which not only increases U.S. emissions but decreases the incentive for China and other large emitters to do their part.
That’s why Michael Mann, director of the Center for Science, Sustainability and the Media at the University of Pennsylvania, declared in 2020, “A second Trump term is game over for the climate — really!” That remains true four years later.
There’s still time for Biden to reverse course on one policy in which he hasn’t prioritized fighting climate change: exporting fossil fuels.
The presidency is not the only important election for the climate this year. Control of Congress will also be at stake. In 2022, congressional Democrats passed the largest climate investment in world history: $369 billion over 10 years in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to subsidize deployment of solar panels, electric vehicles and electric heat pumps. If Democrats win both the White House and congressional majorities, more climate investment could be in the offing, whereas unified Republican control in Washington could lead to repeal of the IRA’s clean energy spending, as the GOP-led House Ways and Means Committee already voted for last June. A Republican majority would also almost certainly follow through on previous attempts to overturn the auto fuel efficiency standards, the power plant rules and other Biden-era climate regulations.
Then there are the dozens of elections in the states, where most regulation of utilities and transportation spending is actually determined. Savvy climate activists are increasingly focusing on trying to win key races for climate regulation, from the Pennsylvania state Legislature to the Lancaster County, Nebraska, board of commissioners. But with the window for combating climate change potentially closing next year, the Biden administration needs to accelerate its executive actions this year. “The clock is ticking and the job is not done,” warns a recent report by Evergreen Action, a climate advocacy group. The Environmental Protection Agency needs to finalize rules on emissions from power plants, buildings and automobiles — nonfinalized rules are easier and quicker to reverse — and the agency must tackle other sources of emissions such as landfills. The Internal Revenue Service needs to finish writing rules and guidance for the IRA’s tax credits. Lastly, there’s still time for Biden to reverse course on one policy in which he hasn’t prioritized fighting climate change: exporting fossil fuels. In the interest of helping Europe lessen its dependence on Russian gas, his administration has begun approving the construction of terminals to ship overseas liquefied natural gas — a much more emissions-heavy fuel than gas that comes through a pipeline. But Biden can still change his mind and stop most terminals from being built. After decades of half-measures, procrastination and misinformation, the room for error in fighting climate change is long gone. To stave off catastrophe, everyone needs to do everything they can. The planet can still be saved — but everything needs to go right this year.
Ben Adler
Ben Adler is a journalist covering climate change, politics, policy and cities. He has written for The New York Times, The Washington Post, Politico, Yahoo News, Grist, and The Nation, among others. 
