Shortly after Donald Trump signed the Republicans’ domestic policy megabill in July, the president had nothing but positive things to say about House Speaker Mike Johnson, who had closely followed the White House’s instructions throughout the process. The Louisiana Republican, Trump said, would “go down as one of the great speakers at any time in history.”

A lot can change in five months.

As 2025 nears its end, Johnson can boast about the passage of one giant far-right bill, but he has little else to show for his yearlong efforts. The House speaker is seen in essence as a presidential caddy; his party is struggling at the ballot box; his members are retiring and resigning in unexpected numbers; a growing number of lawmakers are going around Johnson with discharge petitions to legislate on issues he’d prefer to ignore; and the GOP leader generally sounds rather miserable.

But to fully appreciate just how dreadful things have become for Johnson, consider that Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-N.Y., a member of the House GOP leadership team, this week publicly accused the speaker of telling “lies” and protecting the “deep state.”

Stefanik then sat down with The Wall Street Journal and went even further. From the article:

Republican Rep. Elise Stefanik, a prominent ally of President Trump, criticized House Speaker Mike Johnson, calling him an ineffective leader who is losing control over the GOP conference headed into the midterm elections.

‘He certainly wouldn’t have the votes to be speaker if there was a roll-call vote tomorrow,’ the New York lawmaker, who is running for governor, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. ‘I believe that the majority of Republicans would vote for new leadership. It’s that widespread.’

In the same interview, the New York congresswoman — who was given the title of chair of House Republican leadership after the White House pulled her nomination to serve as the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations — compared the speaker unfavorably to his ousted predecessor.

“Whereas Kevin McCarthy was a political animal, Mike Johnson is a political novice and, boy, does it show, with the House Republicans underperforming for the first time in the Trump era,” Stefanik said. She added that Trump “is the leader of the Republicans and he certainly doesn’t need Mike Johnson.”

While this highly unusual feud between two members of the same small GOP leadership team is clearly bubbling over, Stefanik isn’t alone. The New York Times reported that some House Republicans “predict that he may not last as the speaker for the rest of this term … either as a result of Republicans losing their slim majority before Election Day, or because Mr. Johnson is ousted by his own members.”

I don’t have a crystal ball, but with Republican Rep. Matt Van Epps of Tennessee having been sworn in, the House GOP conference currently has 220 members. After Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia resigns next month, it will shrink to 219. Amid rumors that Republican Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina might soon exit to focus on her gubernatorial candidacy, the total could very well soon shrink again to 218 — in a chamber where 218 is the bare minimum for a majority.

With numbers like these, it wouldn’t take much for Johnson to lose his gavel before voters have their say in the 2026 midterm elections. Watch this space.