For the last year, Sen. Joe Manchin has delivered nothing but mixed messages about his national ambitions. The conservative West Virginia Democrat spent much of 2023 making unsubtle references to a possible third-party presidential bid, even telling Fox News in October, “Why not have options?”
Around the same time, however, Manchin told MSNBC, “I don’t think that democracy as we know it would withstand another Trump administration.” Soon after, the senator nevertheless announced plans to travel the country and gauge public interest “in creating a movement to mobilize the middle and bring Americans together,” suggesting he was prepared to run a third-party bid that likely would’ve made a Trump victory easier.
As recently as this week, the West Virginian openly speculated about possible running mates, saying the person he “would ask right now” is Republican Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah. The conservative Democrat also mentioned retired Republican Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio.
One day later, Manchin withdrew from consideration. NBC News reported:
Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., announced Friday that he is not running for president after spending months mulling a bid that would have shaken up the 2024 campaign. “I will not be seeking a third-party run. I will not be involved in a presidential run,” Manchin said during a speech.
The senator went on to say that he didn’t want to be a “spoiler” candidate. (He said the same thing on NBC’s “Meet the Press” 10 months ago, but he considered the possibility anyway.)
For Democrats, Manchin’s decision comes as a relief. There’s ample evidence to suggest the 2024 presidential election will be very close, and if Manchin ran, common sense suggests he was more likely to take votes from the Democratic ticket than the Republican ticket.
But as the dust settles, it seems there was one thing missing from Manchin’s vision: a constituency. It’s the foundational question to any campaign — who will a candidate appeal to, and who’s likely to vote for them — and as the senator eyed a national candidacy, the answer was elusive.
Manchin seemed to believe there was a large contingent of voters who not only opposed the likely major-party nominees, but who were also eager to rally behind a conservative Democrat who’s been a thorn in his party’s side.
As the senator’s national ambitions come to an apparent end, he apparently knows better now.
