When Rep. Matt Gaetz decided in the fall that it was time to try to oust then-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, the process was, by Capitol Hill standards, quick and efficient. On Monday, Oct. 2, the Florida Republican took the procedural step, filing what’s known as a motion to vacate the chair. On Tuesday, Oct. 3 — less than 24 hours after the motion was filed — McCarthy lost his gavel.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene’s campaign to bring down McCarthy’s successor is proving to be … different.

It was 39 days ago when the right-wing Georgian filed her own motion to oust Speaker Mike Johnson, though unlike Gaetz’s effort, the congresswoman did not trigger any votes. Instead, as regular readers know, Greene effectively initiated an uncertain process and got to work looking for allies.

And while it’s true that she’s found a couple — literally, two — there’s a growing impression in Republican circles that Greene’s gambit is proving to be a rather embarrassing failure for an extremist already burdened by a cringeworthy reputation. The headline on an Axios report this morning reads, “GOP lawmakers say Marjorie Taylor Greene’s motion to vacate has fizzled.”

A sizable number of GOP lawmakers cast doubt on the odds of Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) pulling the trigger on her motion to vacate Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), with some arguing her efforts lost momentum after members went home for recess.

The report quoted one House Republican who said, in reference to the effort to oust the incumbent House speaker, “Even trolls online have said they don’t want it.” Another added, referring to Greene, “I don’t think she’s going to do it — I think that window for her has passed.”

This comes on the heels of a Politico report that noted the right-wing congresswoman and her team “won’t detail her plans or even say whether she still intends to force this vote.” The article added that Greene and her allies are facing “their ultimate put-up-or-shut-up moment.”

For her part, the Georgian insisted anew yesterday that Johnson’s “days as Speaker are numbered.” Perhaps, though no one knows quite what that means: Are they numbered because she’s planning to force a vote on the Louisianan’s ouster, because he might struggle to garner GOP support after the 2024 elections in the fall, or because Johnson will someday retire?

Looking ahead, Greene has a handful of options, none of which are especially appealing:

• Greene could push back against the conventional wisdom in her party, force a vote on the speaker’s fate, and see what happens. (She would almost certainly lose the fight.)
• Greene could keep the threats going in the coming months, never pull the proverbial trigger on her procedural scheme, and reinforce the impression that she’s not nearly as strong as she likes to pretend.
• Greene could concede defeat, admit that she doesn’t have the votes, and look weak.
• Greene could somehow find more intraparty allies, convince Democrats not to bail out Johnson, and somehow succeed in her crusade.

It’s that fourth option that seems the least likely.

For his part, the incumbent House speaker appears increasingly optimistic about persevering, at least through the rest of this year. That said, while Greene appears to have dug herself into a hole without a plan to get out, there are risks for Johnson, too: The more he relies on Democrats to keep his gavel — in the event that such a vote ever materializes — the more difficult his future in GOP politics will become.

What a strange mess the House Republican conference has become.

This post updates our related earlier coverage.