It’s been about a month since the U.S. Supreme Court heard oral arguments in Trump v. United States, with an important underlying question on the line: Does a former president have immunity from criminal prosecution for acts taken while in office?
We don’t yet know how the justices will answer that question — though the sooner they decide, the better it will be for prosecutors and the justice system — though it appears much of the public has already come to their conclusions.
Marquette Law School conducted a national survey this month, asking respondents, “The U.S. Supreme Court is considering a case concerning whether former presidents have immunity from criminal prosecution for official actions while in office. Which comes closer to your view: [former presidents] should be immune from criminal prosecution for their official acts [or] should not have immunity from criminal prosecution for their official acts?”
The results were rather one-sided:
Former presidents should be immune from criminal prosecution: 16%
Former presidents should not be immune from criminal prosecution: 71%
At first blush, the data suggested that Trump’s repeated claims only persuaded a modest sliver of the American electorate. But in this instance, the pollster took an interesting extra step. From the Marquette Law School report:
To understand how former President Donald Trump’s involvement affects views of presidential immunity, the poll asked a random half of the sample if “former presidents” should have immunity and the other half if “former President Donald Trump” should have immunity. Of those thus asked, 16% said “former presidents” should have immunity, while 71% said they should not. Of those asked about “former President Donald Trump,” 30% said he should have immunity, while 60% said he should not. The effect of mentioning Trump almost doubles support for immunity.
If you’re thinking that the shift was the result of self-identified Republicans changing their minds, you’re right: When asked about “former presidents,” only 29% of GOP voters said they supported immunity. When Trump’s name was added to the mix, support for immunity among GOP voters more than doubled to 61%.
This isn’t altogether surprising, but the survey data does serve as a timely reminder about partisan and tribal loyalties, principles and the degree to which many find it easy to prioritize the former over the latter.
