By any fair measure, the last year has been challenging for Sen. Joni Ernst. Shortly after Election Day 2024, for example, the Iowa Republican ran for a Senate GOP leadership post and lost. Soon after, she was rumored to be in contention to serve as Donald Trump’s latest defense secretary, but that job instead went to Pete Hegseth, whom she supported despite his record.
In March, ProPublica ran a damaging report on unconfirmed allegations surrounding Ernst’s personal relationships with military officials who lobbied her committee (a spokesperson for Ernst did not comment on the details of the allegations but insisted that the senator maintained her independence).
Two months later, the senator caused quite a bit of trouble for herself and her party with a macabre defense of Medicaid cuts in the inaptly named One Big Beautiful Bill Act when she told constituents, “Well, we all are going to die.”
In early July, Politico reported that the two-term incumbent was considering retirement ahead of a possible 2026 re-election campaign, followed soon after by an intense intraparty effort to persuade her to run again. That lobbying apparently did not prove persuasive. NBC News reported:
Sen. Joni Ernst, R-Iowa, plans to announce that she will not run for re-election next year, according to a person familiar with her decision. Her decision, first reported by CBS News, would open up another potentially competitive race in Iowa, months after GOP Gov. Kim Reynolds announced she wouldn’t run for re-election either.
For those keeping score, there are now 10 incumbent senators who are preparing to give up their seats next year, including five Republicans: Tennessee’s Marsha Blackburn (who’s running for governor), Ernst, Kentucky’s Mitch McConnell, North Carolina’s Thom Tillis and Alabama’s Tommy Tuberville (who’s also running for governor in that state).
Among Democrats, four incumbent senators are retiring — Illinois’ Dick Durbin, Michigan’s Gary Peters, New Hampshire’s Jeanne Shaheen and Minnesota’s Tina Smith — while Colorado’s Michael Bennet, who’s midway through his term, is running for governor with plans to appoint his own successor.
As for the upcoming race in the Hawkeye State, it’s too soon to say which Republicans might run to replace Ernst, though there’s been unconfirmed scuttlebutt about Rep. Ashley Hinson. Among Democrats, there’s been some coalescing of late around state Rep. Josh Turek’s candidacy, although it remains to be seen whether others reconsider their interest in the race in light of the Ernst news. State Sen. Zach Wahls, Des Moines School Board Chairwoman Jackie Norris and military veteran Nathan Sage are also running.
As for Iowa’s political trajectory, Democrats face an uphill climb: While Barack Obama won the state twice, Donald Trump carried Iowa in each of the last three election cycles, including a 13-point victory last fall. A Democrat hasn’t won a Senate race in the state since Tom Harkin’s re-election bid in 2008.
Given the current GOP advantage, Democrats would need a net gain of four Senate seats in the 2026 midterms to reclaim a majority in the chamber. Watch this space.
