Much of what has transpired in the war in Iran was predictable. One need not be a foreign policy expert, for example, to realize that Donald Trump would make a series of miscalculations while ignoring sensible warnings. Similarly, the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz was unavoidable; Iran’s efforts to widen the conflict into a regional war have long been envisioned; and pretty much everyone saw the economic consequences coming.
The one thing that I’ve found surprising, however, is the near-constant focus on the president’s feelings.
Just three days into the military offensive, an analysis in The New York Times noted that Trump’s decision “to order the attack on Iran … was mostly a matter of gut instinct.” A week later, a reporter asked about Trump’s argument that he feared an Iranian strike on U.S. targets within seven days, which he then bumped down to three days; in response, White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt referred to “a feeling the president had based on facts.”
Similarly, late last week, the president told Fox News’ Brian Kilmeade how he will know when the war is over: “When I feel it, when I feel it in my bones.”
There have long been concerns that the entire foundation of the war was built on the whims of a former television personality. Trump keeps confirming that those fears were well justified.
He’s not the first president to launch a dubious war, but he is the first to pursue a war policy based on vibes.
Complicating matters is the inconvenient fact the Republican does not appear to have any idea what he’s talking about. At one point last week, he offered an assessment of the war: The United States has already won the war, which we’ll win soon, which we haven’t won enough, which is both over and just getting started. A few days later, the president similarly said the war “will keep us out of a war,” adding that it’s a war for Iran but not us.
This was hardly the only evidence of Trump’s cluelessness. New York magazine put together a timeline documenting the White House’s “confusing” and contradictory timetables for our latest war in the Middle East:
How long will President Donald Trump’s new war with Iran last? That depends on whom, how, or when you’re asking and perhaps whether the markets are currently freaking out. From the start, Trump, Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, and others have offered very mixed messages about a potential timetable for the conflict — which clearly isn’t ending anytime soon, or could end hours from now, or will go on as long as it has to because the U.S. can go longer than any other country. It’s also proceeding way ahead of schedule as Iran is being decimated and redecimated and reredecimated daily. But the war is also now complete, or almost complete, or only just beginning.
This coincided with an NBC News report that added, “The Trump administration’s talking points on the Iran war have been a moving target, with officials giving sometimes conflicting takes of the operation’s goals in language that evolves in real-time.”
But the “feel it in my bones” quote stands out in large part because the question isn’t just when or whether the war will end, but also how. There’s never been an articulated strategy behind the White House’s policy in Iran, and those looking for anything resembling a plan or metrics for success will be searching for quite a while.
The war will end, in other words, when the easily confused and profoundly ignorant president feels like he no longer wants it to continue. What could possibly go wrong?
