In a year-end column, The Washington Post’s Heather Long wrote that the best way to describe the U.S. economy in 2023 was “miracle.” Despite assumptions about a recession and inflation causing widespread job losses, the resilient national economy preserved anyway and exceeded all expectations.
And yet, as regular readers know, despite historically low unemployment, economic growth, shrinking inflation, rising wages, falling gas prices, a rising stock market, and an economy that’s easily outperforming our peer nations abroad, recent surveys have found an American electorate with dour opinions about the state of the economy. As a political matter, the question on the minds of many Democrats is when public attitudes will start to better reflect economic improvements.
An answer to that question is starting to come into focus. The headline on a Wall Street Journal report said a lot in six words: “Americans Are Suddenly Upbeat About Economy.”
Consumer sentiment surged 29% since November, the biggest two-month increase since 1991, the University of Michigan said Friday, adding to gauges showing improving moods. It’s a sharp turn after persistently high inflation, the lingering shock from the pandemic’s destruction and fears that a recession was around the corner had put a damper on feelings about the economy in recent years, despite solid growth and consistent hiring.
It’s not the only relevant evidence. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence report pointed in the same direction as the closely watched University of Michigan report.
The latest USA Today/Suffolk University Poll, meanwhile, found that public views of the economy “are brightening,” and the latest national poll from Quinnipiac University showed that a plurality of U.S. voters (48%) believe the economy will continue to improve in 2024, while more than 6 in 10 Americans (62%) said they expect 2024 to be better than 2023 for them personally.
The New York Times reported this week that Americans “are feeling more confident about the economy than they have in years, by some measures.”
News like this comes with all kinds of caveats. For example, data like this can be a bit erratic. What’s more, the year is just getting started, and potential economic hurdles on the horizon can be difficult to predict.
Perhaps most importantly, the context matters: Americans are feeling better about the economy, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they’re feeling good about the economy.
But as the election year gets underway, the state of the economy will very likely be the dominant issue for much of the public. The fact that we’re starting to see real evidence of improved optimism is exactly the kind of news the folks at the Biden-Harris re-election headquarters are desperate to see.
In fact, the Post’s Catherine Rampell noted some recent history that might help bolster Democratic hopes about this year’s race: “One possible scenario for the 2024 presidential election is a trajectory that looks a lot like 2012’s. During that campaign cycle, negative views of the economy weighed heavily on President Barack Obama’s job approval. A year ahead of the election, Obama was trailing his likely Republican challengers across a dozen swing states, and his chances for re-election were considered relatively weak. But economic conditions gradually improved, as did voters’ views of the economy. By the time November rolled around, Obama won handily.”
This post updates our related earlier coverage.
