For those wondering what to expect from Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s presidential campaign, the writing has been on the wall for a while. The independent conspiracy theorist had already effectively stopped holding public events and raising money when his running mate signaled that the end of his candidacy was near.
Nicole Shanahan said this week that their campaign faced a choice between continuing with its ill-fated effort — which would “risk” helping Vice President Kamala Harris, she said — or dropping out to “join forces” with Trump. The candid comments, made on a podcast, left little doubt that the Kennedy candidacy was intended to undermine the Democratic ticket.
It also made clear that those expecting to see Kennedy’s 2024 candidacy persevere in the coming weeks and months needed to lower their expectations. Three days after Shanahan raised the prospect of pulling the plug on the doomed third-party campaign, the conspiracy theorist agreed to stand down. NBC News reported:
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s campaign told a Pennsylvania court that he will be endorsing former President Donald Trump, ahead of his own Friday afternoon announcement putting to rest a tumultuous independent presidential campaign. … “Many months ago I promised the American people I would withdraw from the race if I became a spoiler. … In my heart, I no longer believe I have a realistic path to electoral victory,” he said [at a press conference in Arizona].
Looking ahead, the obvious question is about the possible consequences. Kennedy obviously wasn’t going to win the presidential race or any electoral votes, but the anti-vaccine activist cultivated a modest following. As he exits the stage and throws his support behind Donald Trump, what happens now?
On the surface, the Republican nominee has reason to be pleased. Even if Kennedy’s support had dwindled to a few percentage points, in a highly competitive race, a few percentage points is likely to make the difference between winning and losing. If recent polling puts Harris’ lead at around two points, Kennedy’s supporters could turn Trump’s deficit into an advantage.
At least, that is, on the surface.
Just below the surface it’s a bit more complicated. For one thing, some of Kennedy’s supporters might yet support the Democratic ticket, his Trump endorsement notwithstanding. For another, Kennedy’s base doesn’t appear to be made up of traditional voters.
As a New York Times report, published before Kennedy’s announcement, explained, the independent’s backers “are less likely than others to have voted in 2020, and are also less likely to say they will vote come November.”
In other words, with Kennedy out, his base is likely to splinter, and some of his fans will simply stay home in the fall.
Complicating matters is that Democrats are going out of their way to tell the electorate that they’re the normal, responsible, and grown-up party in 2024, and voters should reject the fringe and the radical. It’s against that backdrop that Trump is picking up support from a fringe figure whose weird ideas made it impossible for his campaign to capitalize on months of voter dissatisfaction with Trump and President Joe Biden.
Given recent events, the GOP nominee will celebrate good news where he can find it, and Trump is not in the habit of turning down endorsements from anyone. But if the former president and his allies are counting on a major boost as a result of Kennedy’s exit, they’re likely to be disappointed.
