Democrats hoping to keep Donald Trump from returning to power currently have a handful of options, each of which carry a significant amount of risk. The party is largely united on the basics — the presumptive Republican nominee poses an extraordinary risk to democracy and the future of the American experiment — but divided on how best to move forward.
There’s no shortage of relevant questions Democratic officials, donors, insiders and voters are confronting right now, but at the heart of the matter is a straightforward line of inquiry: Is President Joe Biden the best option for the Democratic ticket in 2024?
If the answer is “yes,” the least risky thing the party can do right now is simply stay the course and stick to the status quo. If the answer is “no,” then Democrats might have a narrow window of opportunity to improve their chances.
So, what’s the correct answer? I have plenty of opinions on the matter, though I’ll concede that both camps have made credible arguments in the wake of Biden’s dreadful debate performance 12 days ago. In fact, while organizing my thoughts on the matter, I managed to pull together two contradictory Top 10 lists — one making the case for the Democratic incumbent to pass the torch, and another making the opposite case.
Let’s start with the pro-Biden case.
1. If you want to defeat Trump, it makes sense to nominate someone with experience defeating Trump.
2. Biden has an impressive record of success that warrants a second term.
3. Biden’s ideas, goals and priorities enjoy broad public support, which seems like a relevant detail in a national campaign.
4. Post-debate polling has been discouraging, but his support hasn’t completely collapsed, and his current deficit is hardly overwhelming.
5. Biden easily won nearly all of his party’s presidential primaries and caucuses, and it would be undemocratic (and arguably un-Democratic) to discard those results.
6. There are legal and procedural measures in place that make it extremely difficult to replace Biden on the ticket.
7. Removing an incumbent president, four months before Election Day, would signal to the public that Democrats are in a state of chaos and disarray.
8. The intra-party fight over replacing Biden would be divisive and tumultuous at a time when Democrats want and need to be focusing their political fire at the GOP ticket.
9. Plenty of experienced observers and political professionals are convinced that voters simply won’t re-elect Biden given the circumstances, but their assessments have been wrong before — remember when the “Access Hollywood” tape was supposed to doom Trump’s candidacy? — and the whole idea of political “deal-breakers” is probably overdue for a reassessment.
10. It’s simply too late in the process for a new candidate to vet and choose a new running mate, while launching a national organization.
And then there’s the case against Biden.
1. The incumbent president was struggling in the 2024 race before his debate failure, and now things are worse. What’s more, Biden is the first Democratic candidate in the 21st century to be trailing at this stage in the race.
2. Public opinion research has been consistent for quite a while: Most voters believe Biden, who’ll turn 82 in the fall, is too old. In fact, a New York Times/Siena poll conducted after the debate found that 74% of the country sees the Democrat as “too old to be an effective president.” In campaigns, some problems are relatively easy to fix. The fact that Biden, if re-elected, would turn 86 in his second term isn’t easily cast aside, and denying the problem won’t make it go away.
3. Polling averages suggest Biden’s approval rating is down to nearly 37%. When was the last time an incumbent president won a second term with an approval rating this low at this stage in the process? Never. Since the dawn of modern American polling, it’s simply never happened.
4. Neither Biden nor his team have articulated a compelling strategy to help turn things around.
5. Biden excelled four years ago, not by barnstorming the country, unveiling an exciting new agenda, and being an inspirational voice, but by leveraging his relationships and years of experience. In 2024, however, with Trump’s lead growing, Biden’s skills are incompatible with what his party needs to prevail.
6. Republicans desperately want Biden to remain atop his party’s ticket, and given the stakes, it’s folly for Democrats to give the GOP what it wants.
7. The Democratic plan for 2024 was to turn the race into a referendum on Trump. As Biden struggles, it’s quickly become a choice between two unpopular candidates. Similarly, the more the president’s age becomes the centerpiece of the cycle, the less oxygen there is for everything else, including Trump’s and his party’s many vulnerabilities.
8. A Biden defeat wouldn’t just cost Democrats the White House: The party’s latest polls suggest the president’s difficulties are on track to create a drag on the party’s down-ballot candidates, making it nearly impossible for Democrats to take control of Congress.
9. The Democrats’ problem appears to be largely Biden-specific: In key states, the president is running behind his own party’s other statewide candidates. It suggests Democrats could still excel in this cycle with a new candidate that voters might get excited about.
10. There’s reason to believe things will get worse: Biden’s campaign has already invested millions of dollars in battleground state ads, in the hopes of moving the needle. It hasn’t worked. (Another part of the strategy was the early debate, and that didn’t work, either.) Trump, meanwhile, has narrowed the financial playing field, and will soon start competing in states where Biden has had the airwaves largely to himself.
Which case will prevail? Watch this space.
