JD Vance raised a few eyebrows at the Munich Leaders Meeting in Washington last week, conceding publicly that Russia was simply “asking for too much” to end its war with Ukraine. A day later, the vice president elaborated, telling Fox News that Russia expected to be given Ukrainian territory that Russian forces hadn’t yet seized.
In other words, under Vladimir Putin’s vision, Russia would get to keep parts of Ukraine it had seized by force, and it would receive additional rewards in the form of Ukrainian soil that Russia has so far failed to acquire.
Hours after Vance’s comments, Donald Trump weighed in, threatening sanctions unless Russia and Ukraine agreed to a 30-day “unconditional ceasefire.” NBC News reported:
‘The U.S. calls for, ideally, a 30-day unconditional ceasefire. Hopefully, an acceptable ceasefire will be observed, and both Countries will be held accountable for respecting the sanctity of these direct negotiations,’ Trump wrote on Truth Social. ‘If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions,’ Trump added.
Soon after, Moscow shrugged. “He is most welcome to do whatever he can do but we have our basic interests in this crisis,” Konstantin Kosachev, a member of Russia’s Federation Council told CNN, referring to the American president.
If the circumstances seemed familiar, it’s not your imagination.
Two days after Trump’s second inaugural, the Republican published a message to his social media platform, telling Russia that if it failed to end the conflict quickly, the White House “would have no other choice” but to impose new economic sanctions.
Putin ignored the threat, and Trump failed to follow through.
Roughly six weeks later, the American president did it again, declaring online that he was “strongly considering” new economic sanctions on Russia as a way to compel the Kremlin to agree to a ceasefire. Putin again ignored the threat, and Trump again failed to follow through.
In late March, Trump once again said he was prepared to impose economic penalties on Russia. In keeping with the pattern, Putin ignored the threat, and Trump failed to follow through.
Last week — for the fourth time in four months — the American president wrote online, “If the ceasefire is not respected, the U.S. and its partners will impose further sanctions.” For the fourth time, Russia expressed indifference.
The problem isn’t merely that Trump keeps making threats without following through. The problem is made worse by the fact that Trump keeps coming up with new rewards for the Putin regime.
That said, there were some developments of note over the weekend. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced that he would participate in direct negotiations in Turkey later this week — a position the Ukrainian leader adopted at Trump’s urging.
This might’ve seemed like progress, but it was not: One day earlier, the Trump administration sided with U.S. allies in Europe on a plan intended to push Putin to accept a 30-day ceasefire. Less than 24 hours later, Trump rejected his own administration’s position, undermined U.S. allies in the process and embraced Putin’s preferred approach.
A charitable interpretation of the events is that the American president simply didn’t know his own position on the diplomatic process that he ostensibly supports. The less charitable interpretation is that Trump was siding with Moscow — again.
