For months, the Republican-imposed debt ceiling crisis was generally perceived as an abstraction. Observers from the political and economic worlds understood that GOP leaders were making serious threats, and that policymakers would need to come up with a solution to prevent a catastrophe, but the issue was largely seen as a problem on the horizon.

The horizon is suddenly drawing closer now.

After House Speaker Kevin McCarthy signaled to Wall Street that he and his party are moving forward with their hostage crisis, Reuters reported late last week that the GOP-imposed standoff was starting to send “jitters through global financial markets.” The report added the cost of insuring U.S. debt has now reached its highest level in over a decade, and JPMorgan warned of a “non-trivial risk” of a default.

In other words, this is no longer an abstraction. It’s late April; the deadline might hit in early June; and we’re already seeing some of the effects of Republicans threatening to harm Americans on purpose.

To that end, McCarthy unveiled something called the Limit, Save, Grow Act of 2023 last week — a package that came together in secret, without so much as a single committee hearing — which is intended to serve as the GOP’s hostage note. It is a difficult plan to take seriously: In order to prevent Republicans from deliberately crashing the economy, Democrats are apparently supposed to accept a plan that would put 10 million Americans at risk of losing the Medicaid coverage, undermine law enforcement in a way that would increase the deficit, and gut necessary public investments.

Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz told Politico, “The leadership just picked up the House Freedom Caucus plan and helped us convert it into the legislative text.” The far-right Floridian apparently meant that as a compliment.

What’s more, in exchange for paying this ransom, Republicans would raise the debt limit through March 2024, at which point the party would presumably come up with an additional set of demands as part of yet another extortion plot.

There’s no shortage of questions surrounding McCarthy’s gambit, but right now, one appears at the top of the list: Will his plan pass the GOP-led House? In theory, there’s a Republican majority, so it stands to reason that members would approve a Republican plan.

In practice, it’s not quite that simple. NBC News reported this morning:

[F]ive Republican no votes would derail the McCarthy debt bill, given that Democrats have expressed strong, unified opposition to it. And several of the 20 hard-right conservatives, who initially blocked McCarthy from winning the speakership three months ago have threatened to vote no this week.

On the far-right, members such as Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona have signaled likely opposition, but GOP members from competitive districts, including Reps. Tony Gonzales of Texas and Nancy Mace of South Carolina, have also expressed serious doubts.

True to form, Rep. George Santos of New York is also signaling his opposition, though he appears to be angling for some kind of deal.

As things stand, the House speaker is eyeing a floor vote on Wednesday, and if his regressive and dangerous plan passes, McCarthy believes he’ll have new leverage to force Democratic leaders into negotiations. Bloomberg reported, however, that the GOP leader is still “without the numbers he needs to pass his plan.”

The stakes couldn’t be much higher. Watch this space.