This is an adapted excerpt from the Oct. 26 episode of “Ayman.”

With Election Day just days away, Donald Trump is making surprising gains with an unexpected group of voters: Arab and Muslim Americans. According to a new poll from the Arab News Research and Studies Unit, the former president is now edging out Vice President Kamala Harris among Arab American voters, 43% to 41%.

While that number is within the poll’s margin of error, it comes as Trump scored an endorsement from Bill Bazzi, the mayor of Dearborn Heights, Michigan. Bazzi represents a city with a large Arab population and joined Trump at a rally in the battleground state this weekend.

All this is in stark contrast to the overwhelming support President Joe Biden enjoyed from the same community back in 2020. It’s also pretty surprising when you consider Trump’s record with Muslim and Arab Americans.

During this first term, Trump banned immigration from several Muslim-majority countries. He even made comments about Islam hating America. He repeatedly attacked Arab and Muslim lawmakers, like Reps. Ilhan Omar and Rashida Tlaib. And, throughout his first campaign, Trump frequently repeated the false claim that he saw thousands of New Jersey Muslims celebrating the 9/11 attacks.

If Trump is successful this election and finds himself back in the White House in January, we have a pretty clear picture of how he’d handle the war in the Middle East, which he might inherit. During his first administration, he defied global calls and moved the U.S. embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. Trump also recognized Israel’s annexation of the Golan Heights. More recently, he said Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is doing a good job and claimed Biden was holding him back. Trump also promised to deport pro-Palestinian protesters all while using “Palestinian” as a slur.

So, you may be asking yourself: How did we get to a point where some Arab American and Muslim American voters are backing this man?

As Shadi Hamid, a columnist for The Washington Post, explains: 

In my conversations with Arabs and Muslims across the country, the mood has become dark and despairing. They see how the Democratic Party has ignored the preferences of its own members, 77% of whom believe the United States should not send weapons to Israel. Leading Democrats acknowledge the devastation inflicted on Gaza but in the same breath appear unwilling to do anything about it.

Although Harris has been more effective at expressing empathy for Palestinian civilians, she has also signaled she will not break with Biden administration policy on Israel and Gaza. During a CNN town hall last week, Harris was asked what she would say to voters who are thinking about supporting another candidate or sitting out of the upcoming election due to her stance on the war.

“Listen, I am not going to deny the strong feelings that people have,” Harris told CNN’s Anderson Cooper. “I don’t know that anyone who has seen the images who would not have strong feelings about what has happened, much less those who have relatives who have died and been killed.”

“But I also do know that for many people who care about this issue, they also care about bringing down the price of groceries,” Harris continued. “They also care about our democracy and not having a president of the United States who admires dictators and is a fascist.”

Other activists say it’s not even about policy, pointing to mistakes from the party that were largely symbolic — and avoidable. Like Democrats choosing not to give a speaking slot to even one Palestinian American at the Democratic National Convention (the Republican National Convention didn’t have a Palestinian American speaker either), or the Harris campaign kicking a prominent Muslim American Democrat out of an event in Michigan just last week.

And now, Trump is filling that vacuum by making his own symbolic gestures to court Arab and Muslim voters, especially in Michigan, a critical swing state where he and Harris are currently deadlocked. He’s talking about how much he loves Arabs on Saudi state TV. He’s posing with Muslim mayors and visiting small towns. 

It’s clear to many Arab American and Muslim voters that the former president’s newfound “love” for the community isn’t genuine, but members of those communities are already concerned they may be blamed for a Trump win, regardless of the way they actually end up voting. 

In the closing days of this election, Democrats may want to consider this message from the Post’s Josh Rogin, “If Harris does lose Michigan and the election, it won’t be because Muslim voters were disloyal to the Democratic Party. It will be because she and the Democratic Party were not loyal to them.”