This is an adapted excerpt from the Aug. 2 episode of “Morning Joe.”
It’s the first Friday of the month, which means the Bureau of Labor Statistics has released its jobs report. And there’s good news and bad news.
First, the bad news. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in July and employers added just 114,000 jobs.
The number of jobs added is definitely lower than we expected. We’re also seeing wage growth slow (though it is still more than inflation). Both could be a problem for the economy. July’s weaker-than-expected report will only add to concerns that the Federal Reserve has waited too long to start cutting interest rates.
For nearly three years, all we’ve been talking about is inflation, inflation, inflation.
However, let’s think about what the Fed needs to do here, because they have to balance two jobs:
One, keep inflation under control. For nearly three years, all we’ve been talking about is inflation, inflation, inflation. It’s why the Fed hasn’t cut rates yet — with rates being higher, the goal is to try to slow the economy and cool inflation.
Their other job is to focus on employment. To bring down inflation, they want to make sure the economy isn’t growing too fast, but they also need to make sure it’s not slowing down so much that employers stop expanding and hiring.
This is where Friday’s report could be good news. With numbers like what we saw, it’s now more likely the Federal Reserve will start cutting interest rates come September. It’s possible it might be even bigger than we’ve been expecting, though a lot can happen between now and then.
It’s also tricky for the Fed. September is only two months before the election and a rate cut could thrust the Fed into the political spotlight.
Donald Trump and Project 2025 have been clear about where the Republican Party stands on this. They’re interested in having more say in what the Fed does.
September is only two months before the election and a rate cut could thrust the Fed into the political spotlight.
In the end, all of this is a dilemma for both the Fed and for Democrats. By September, we might see unemployment rising too fast and more people out of work. The Fed will likely feel they have no choice but to cut. But at that point, it’s possible voters will be worrying about their jobs more than (still) high prices — or both.
So when and if we see the Fed cut interest rates, prepare yourself for a lot of political noise in the final weeks before November’s election.
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