As the calendar flipped to 2026 on Thursday, millions of Americans who purchase their health insurance through Obamacare are ringing in the New Year with an unwelcome gift: health care premiums that are more than doubling in most cases.
At midnight, the Obamacare subsidies that had helped many Americans afford insurance finally expired, after lawmakers failed to agree on a plan to extend the enhanced tax credits.
Now, Americans who rely on Obamacare are hoping Congress might be able to address the skyrocketing premiums in the next few weeks.
By the middle of January, the House is expected to pass a Democratic bill to renew the subsidies for three years. That bill will not become law — it already failed in the Senate previously — but lawmakers in both parties hope the legislation will spur Congress to rally around what has long proved elusive: a bipartisan agreement to address Obamacare costs.
“We’ll send it over to the Senate, and the Senate will work on doing a compromise,” Rep. Tom Suozzi, D-N.Y., told MS NOW in December.
“Hopefully,” he said, the Senate will amend it and “send it back to us in a way that we can get on both sides to support it.”
A bipartisan group of senators appeared to be making some headway ahead of the holidays on a potential deal, which would combine extending the subsidies for a shorter period of time — one or two years — coupled with reforms such as income caps.
A source familiar with discussions confirmed to MS NOW that conversations between members have continued during the holiday recess.
Of note, one of the senators leading the talks — Sen. Bernie Moreno, R-Ohio — previously told reporters that as part of any deal, lawmakers hope to reopen the Obamacare enrollment period through the end of February, “to take that pressure point off.”
That would address a longstanding concern of many Democrats, who argued that because lawmakers failed to address the subsidies before the enrollment window closed in December, many on the Obamacare marketplace may have opted for lower quality coverage or no insurance at all.
Although Democrats have long pointed to a three-year extension of the subsidies as their preferred path forward, several did not object outright when MS NOW pressed them in December about the possibility of an amended plan.
“If we had to compromise some, I think that’s OK,” said Rep. Adelita Grijalva, D-Ariz..
“I’ll see what it is,” the top Democrat on the Appropriations Committee, Rep. Rosa DeLauro, D-Conn., told MS NOW.
Of course, negotiations in the Senate could still go sideways. Previous negotiations have fizzled out repeatedly. And plenty of lawmakers — including some Republicans — have been clear that Congress’ inability to act before premiums spiked was a “total failure.”
Those were the words moderate Republican Rep. Kevin Kiley of California used in December when asked about the expiring subsidies.
“We’re talking about small business owners and their employees, independent contractors, gig workers, freelance workers, Uber drivers, retirees who aren’t eligible for Medicare who now are on the cusp of paying a very high price because of Congress’s failure to act,” Kiley said.
But Thursday’s expiration of the subsidies was a long time coming.
The expiration itself was no surprise. Democrats had warned for months that the subsidies were set to lapse, even making their extension a central demand during this fall’s record-breaking government shutdown. Republicans — who control both chambers of Congress and the White House — largely objected, arguing the Affordable Care Act is unworkable and reiterating long-standing calls to scrap and replace it.
After more than 15 years, however, Republicans have never coalesced behind a viable alternative to Obamacare.
Under political pressure, House Republicans last month passed their own go-it-alone health care bill. But that legislation did nothing to address the subsidies, and it stands zero chance of clearing the Senate or becoming law.
Amid the stalemate, four Republicans from competitive congressional districts crossed party lines in December to sign onto a discharge petition to force a House floor vote on the Democratic bill extending the subsidies for three years.
The strategy now is simple, if not fragile: House Democrats, joined by a handful of Republicans, will pass the three-year bill by mid-January. And then once the legislation reaches the Senate, lawmakers can replace it with a bipartisan deal that can overcome the 60-vote filibuster threshold, sending the bill back to the House for final passage.
That’s the plan, at least.
The lapse of the enhanced subsidies comes as the calendar turns to a pivotal election year — one that will determine if Republicans maintain their trifecta in Washington or if Democrats can notch control of at least one congressional chamber, unlocking oversight powers they’ve promised to exercise over the Trump White House.
Democrats are betting the higher premiums will resonate with voters in November’s midterm elections — and cost Republicans.
In the lead-up to New Year’s Day, Democrats repeatedly messaged on the issue, hitting the GOP over the pending spike in premiums.
“Republicans don’t give a damn” about Americans losing their health care, House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries of New York posted on social media on Wednesday.
In a statement released on New Year’s Eve, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., said that while Republicans “chose to do nothing and ignore the pain families will feel starting tomorrow, Senate Democrats are fighting to lower costs, protect coverage, and make life more affordable — not harder — for American families.”
Some moderate Republicans admit this could be an electoral problem.
As Rep. Jeff Van Drew, R-N.J., told MS NOW, if lawmakers fail to act and premiums go up, “It’s going to hurt Republicans.”
Polling from last year appears to back that up. A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted in mid-December found that 68% of Americans want to see the Obamacare tax credits extended — including more than 40% of Republicans.
Mychael Schnell contributed to this report.
Kevin Frey is a congressional reporter for MS NOW.